Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Gambia Presidential Election Winner

Name: Gambia Presidential Election Winner
End: 2026-12-05T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$7.44K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Gambia Presidential Election Winner

Vol

$7.44K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $7.44K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.44K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Adama Barrow win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Adama Barrow win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?	Poly	74%
Will Bakary K. Badjie win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?	Poly	9%
Will Ousainou Darboe win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?	Poly	9%
Will Talib Ahmed Bensouda win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?	Poly	8%
Will Essa Faal win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?	Poly	5%
Will Mohamed Al Amin Bah win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Mama Kandeh win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

74%

Top Probability

$7.44K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in The Gambia on December 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Gambian presidential election. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is am

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Gambia Presidential Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 5, 2026 (55 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in The Gambia on December 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Gambian presidential election. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is am

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in The Gambia on December 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Gambian presidential election. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $62.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.12)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Adama Barrow win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 5, 2026): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Talib Ahmed Bensouda win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 5, 2026): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Ousainou Darboe win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 5, 2026): Vol $660
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Mama Kandeh win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 5, 2026): Vol $421
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Essa Faal win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 5, 2026): Vol $88
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Bakary K. Badjie win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 5, 2026): Vol $48
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Mohamed Al Amin Bah win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 5, 2026): Vol $43
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics