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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

California Governor Primary Election: First Place

Name: California Governor Primary Election: First Place
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$14.64K

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Markets

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California Governor Primary Election: First Place

Vol

$14.64K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $14.64K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.64K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

18 markets tracked

Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(18)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	37%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	32%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	30%
Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	2%
Will Leo Zacky finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	2%
Will Matt Mahan finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	2%
Will Nicki Minaj finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	2%
Will Katie Porter finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	1%
Will Derek Grasty finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	1%
Will Elaine Culotti finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	0%
Will Thunder Parley finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	0%
Will Raji Rab finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	0%
Will Daniel Mercuri finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	0%
Will Tony Thurmond finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	0%
Will Carolina Buhler finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	0%
Will Betty Yee finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	0%
Will Ramsey Robinson finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

37%

Top Probability

$14.64K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on vali

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California Governor Primary Election: First Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 2, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on vali

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $92.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.16)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Thunder Parley finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $321
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Raji Rab finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $472
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Tony Thurmond finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $364
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Betty Yee finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $474
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $664
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Derek Grasty finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $493
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Carolina Buhler finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $430
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Katie Porter finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $636
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Antonio Villaraigosa finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $396
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $975
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Leo Zacky finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $476
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Matt Mahan finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Daniel Mercuri finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $448
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Ramsey Robinson finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $401
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Nicki Minaj finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $429
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Elaine Culotti finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $340
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics