This contract group concerns four federal referendum items listed for a popular vote in Switzerland on November 29, 2026, according to the Polymarket event description [1]. The listed items are a federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional AVS funding through a VAT increase, a popular initiative "For a restriction on fireworks," a popular initiative on fair federal taxation for married couples, and an amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG) [1]. Each listed item has its own binary market asking whether it will be approved in the November 29, 2026 vote [1]. The saved sample includes all four markets for this event, so no listed item is omitted from this group [1]. In the saved snapshot, the Yes prices were 0.645 for the fireworks initiative, 0.36 for the LFMG amendment, 0.185 for the AVS VAT decree, and 0.115 for the married couples taxation initiative [1]. These figures are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because each contract is a separate yes or no question, the Yes prices should not be added together or read as a ranking of mutually exclusive outcomes. The resolution rules are specific. A market resolves Yes if its listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote, and No otherwise [1]. Where a popular initiative has a federal counter-proposal, the market resolves Yes if either the initiative or the counter-proposal is approved under the applicable threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote [1]. If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its deadlines [1]. The market resolves No if the results of the vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Swiss referendum is scheduled to be held [1]. For resolution, the source is a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the market resolves solely on official certified results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the ch.ch voting information portal [1]. Later litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of post-approval implementation steps are not considered [1]. The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-29 00:00 UTC for these markets [1].

Historical Context

Switzerland often holds several federal referendums in a single year. The 2008 Swiss referendums were held on several dates, with five votes on 30 November covering topics such as legalising cannabis and making the pension age flexible [3]. The 2020 Swiss referendums were held on 9 February, 27 September and 29 November, and a vote planned for 17 May was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic [2]. These pages describe earlier years and do not establish what appears on the 2026 ballot.

Frequently Asked Questions