GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

Name: Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
End: 2026-11-29T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.84K

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Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

Vol

$6.84K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $6.84K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.84K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will the Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?	Poly	60%
Will the Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG) be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?	Poly	38%
Will the Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?	Poly	25%
Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?	Poly	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

60%

Top Probability

$6.84K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026: - Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT - Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ - Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ - Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG) This market wil

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 29, 2026 (85 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026: 

- Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT
- Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’
- Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’
- Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG)

This market wil

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $23.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $716
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG) be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $263
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics