PredictPedia tracks a Polymarket event titled "Iran full airspace closure by...?" The event contains two binary markets with the same underlying question but different deadlines. One asks whether Iran will close its airspace by October 31, 2026, and the other asks whether that will happen by December 31. Each market resolves to "Yes" if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified deadline at 11:59 PM ET, and to "No" otherwise [1]. The rules define a "general closure" as a cancellation or suspension of aviation that is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace, referred to in the rules as the Tehran FIR. To qualify, a closure must apply generally to all of Iran or to the Tehran FIR. Narrower cancellations that affect only some routes or areas do not meet this definition, based on the rule wording [1]. Because the test depends on scope and cause, a single headline about flight disruptions would not by itself settle the contract. The resolution depends on whether the closure meets these specific conditions within the window. The event's listed status is active. The October 31, 2026 market has a listed end time of 2026-11-01T03:59:00Z, and the December 31 market has a listed end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z [1]. These are contract closing times from the provider, not announced events. Nothing in the source material indicates that a closure has been announced or scheduled. The prices shown on the platform are snapshots from the observation time, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of a closure.

Historical Context

Wikipedia background on the 2026 Iran war describes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and says the International Energy Agency has characterized the disruption as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market [2]. The same background notes that the conflict has been compared with the 1970s energy crisis, citing supply shortages, currency volatility, inflation and stagflation risks [2]. This material is historical background drawn from a Wikipedia retrieval. It does not verify current events or establish the present state of Iranian airspace. The same background source compares earlier oil shocks, including the 1990 to 1991 Gulf War, the 2003 Iraq War, and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In each comparison, the initial price spike was larger than the eventual sustained increase, and prices fell back within months or a year [2]. A separate background article describes Iranian strikes on Israel in April 2024, which Iran said were retaliation for an Israeli bombing of its embassy in Damascus. That article described the strike as Iran's first direct attack on Israel since the start of their proxy conflict [3]. These events are background for the broader conflict and do not define the airspace contract's criteria.

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