GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Guatemalan Congressional election winner?

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Guatemalan Congressional election winner?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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7 markets tracked

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (National Unity of Hope)

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (National Unity of Hope)	Kalshi	32%
Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Vamos)	Kalshi	26%
Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Movimiento Semilla)	Kalshi	21%
Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Valor)	Kalshi	5%
Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Cabal)	Kalshi	5%
Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Vision with Values)	Kalshi	4%
Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Todos)	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

32%

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$0.00

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About This Event

In 2027 If the winner of the next Guatemalan Congressional election is X then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may re

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Guatemalan Congressional election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If the winner of the next Guatemalan Congressional election is X then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may re

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the winner of the next Guatemalan Congressional election is Vision with Values, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Vision with Values)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Valor)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (National Unity of Hope)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Todos)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Movimiento Semilla)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Cabal)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Vamos)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Guatemalan Congressional election winner?

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KALSHI

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (National Unity of Hope)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.5¢No 67.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (National Unity of Hope)

If the winner of the next Guatemalan Congressional election is National Unity of Hope, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the s

KALSHI

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Vamos)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Vamos)

If the winner of the next Guatemalan Congressional election is Vamos, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of sea

KALSHI

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Movimiento Semilla)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Movimiento Semilla)

If the winner of the next Guatemalan Congressional election is Movimiento Semilla, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same

KALSHI

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Valor)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.1¢No 94.9¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Valor)

If the winner of the next Guatemalan Congressional election is Valor, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of sea

KALSHI

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Cabal)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.1¢No 94.9¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Cabal)

If the winner of the next Guatemalan Congressional election is Cabal, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of sea

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Guatemalan Congressional election winner?

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Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (National Unity of Hope)

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Events (1)

Guatemalan Congressional election winner?

Markets (7)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (National Unity of Hope)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (National Unity of Hope)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Vamos)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Vamos)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Movimiento Semilla)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Movimiento Semilla)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Valor)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Valor)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Cabal)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Cabal)

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Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (National Unity of Hope)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Guatemalan Congressional election winner?

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (National Unity of Hope)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (National Unity of Hope)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Vamos)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Vamos)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Movimiento Semilla)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Movimiento Semilla)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Valor)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Valor)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Cabal)

Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? (Cabal)

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