Teen apparel credit card spend array index in November
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Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 99 at 50%.
Kalshi
- Above 9950%
- Above 9850%
- Above 10450%
- Above 10350%
- Above 10250%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
7
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Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
This analysis was written from an earlier market snapshot, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether the Carbon Arc Teen Apparel Array level for November 2026 will be above a stated threshold [1]. The underlying metric is credit card spend, and the array is "the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices" [1]. Each constituent reads 100 when its spend equals the same month of the previous year, so an array level of 103 means average growth of 3% [1]. At listing, the members were Urban Outfitters, American Eagle Outfitters, and Abercrombie & Fitch, each weighted 1/3 [1].
Resolution uses the full-month value "as recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day after the end of that month," and later corrections or revisions do not affect it [1]. The contract also states that it "will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation is timestamped Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC and was retrieved at 06:38:56Z the same day. It is a past snapshot, not a current market view. The sample contains seven Kalshi markets with thresholds from 98 through 104, and each lists a Yes price of 0.5 and a No price of 0.5 [1]. Because every saved outcome has the same quoted price, this snapshot does not show which threshold the market views as more or less likely. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Each market lists an end date of Dec 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC [1]. This differs from the 11:59 p.m. ET recording rule in the contract text, and the source metadata also states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The evidence does not explain the difference, so readers should check the contract rules for resolution timing rather than the listed date alone.
Coverage is limited. The saved event includes 7 of 7 markets, and the partial sample flag is false. The sample warning notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Only one platform appears, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the November index value, any later price, trading volume, or liquidity. Volume does not measure liquidity or the number of traders, and the evidence supplies neither. Nothing here explains why prices sit at 0.5, and no recent news, trader sentiment, or forecasting track record is supplied.
References
- Kalshi: Teen apparel credit card spend array index in November. Provider data observed Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 12, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks whether the Carbon Arc Teen Apparel Array, a measure of credit card spending tied to three apparel retailers, will be above a stated threshold for November 2026 [1]. The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of three year-over-year indices, one for each constituent: Urban Outfitters, American Eagle Outfitters, and Abercrombie & Fitch, each weighted one-third at listing [1]. Each constituent index equals 100 when its measured credit card spend matches the same month of the previous year. A level of 103 therefore means the constituents' average year-over-year growth is 3 percent, and 97 means their average decline is 3 percent [1]. The market is listed on Kalshi under the title "Teen apparel credit card spend array index in November" [1]. The rules state that a market resolves to Yes if the index is above the threshold in its title [1]. The thresholds in the saved sample run from 98 to 104 in one-point steps, which is a set of separate yes-or-no contracts on the same underlying value [1]. The rules state that Kalshi is not affiliated with the underlying companies [1]. The resolution value is the full-month level from Carbon Arc's published Teen Apparel Array [1]. The rules say the value is recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the fourth calendar day after the month ends, and they give August and September as an example [1]. For November 2026, that recording point falls on December 4, 2026 in Eastern Time. Later corrections or revisions do not change the recorded value [1]. The rules also say the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. The market listing shows an end date of December 12, 2026 at 15:00 UTC, which is a separate timestamp from the recording rule [1]. The rules describe when the value is recorded, so readers should not treat the listing end date as the resolution moment without further explanation.
Why It Matters
The contract measures year-over-year change in credit card spending across three apparel retailers, expressed as a single index where 100 means no change from the prior year [1]. Because the index is an equally weighted average of the three constituents at listing, a strong or weak month for one retailer affects the result only through its one-third share [1]. The series is defined as a monthly full-month value rather than a point-in-time reading, and the recording rule sets when that value is fixed for settlement [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-12 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a value of 100 mean for this index?
Each constituent index is 100 when its measured credit card spend equals the same month of the previous year, and the array averages those indices [1].
How is the November 2026 result decided?
The market resolves to Yes if the Carbon Arc Teen Apparel Array value for November 2026 is above the threshold in the contract title. That value is recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the fourth calendar day after the month ends, and later corrections do not affect it [1].
Do the prices shown mean the market has a verified probability?
No. The prices are snapshots taken from the listing data and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved sample shows both outcomes at 0.5 for each threshold at the observation time.
Could the market close before the recording date?
Yes. The rules state that the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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