Who will be impeached by June 30, 2027?
PM $4.2K
1
8
Who will be impeached by June 30, 2027?
PM $4.2K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Pete Hegseth - Secretary of Defense at 77%.
Polymarket
- Pete Hegseth - Secretary of Defense77%
- Donald Trump - President63%
- Kash Patel - FBI Director43%
- Russ Vought - OMB Director40%
- Will the House impeach Robert F. Kennedy Jr. by June 30, 2027?39%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $4.2K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. House of Representatives adopts one or more articles of impeachment against the specified individual in connection with their specified role between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office before any article of impeachment is adopted, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. House of Representatives, including the Office of the Clerk and Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-07T09:00:06.323Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
Each market in this event asks whether the U.S. House of Representatives will impeach a named official. The rules say a market "will resolve to 'Yes' if the U.S. House of Representatives adopts one or more articles of impeachment against the specified individual in connection with their specified role between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. Trial, Senate conviction, and removal from office are not required for a "Yes" resolution [1]. If the named person permanently leaves the specified office before any article is adopted, the market resolves "No" [1].
The primary resolution source is official House information, including the Office of the Clerk and Congress.gov, though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z [1]. Readers comparing contracts should check that the wording and close times match before comparing prices.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-11-07T09:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 11:33 UTC that day [1]. These prices describe that observation only and are not live quotes or verified probabilities.
All eight saved markets are included, and the sample is not partial [1]. In this snapshot, the highest Yes price is for Pete Hegseth at 0.675, followed by Kash Patel at 0.43, Russ Vought at 0.40, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marco Rubio at 0.39 each. Donald Trump and Linda McMahon are at 0.35, and Todd Blanche is at 0.285 [1].
Each person has a separate contract with its own title and outcome prices. The evidence does not state how these contracts relate to one another, so the prices should not be averaged, summed, or treated as a single distribution. Differences between them do not by themselves show an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The source does not explain why any price moved, how many traders hold each position, or how much liquidity sits behind each quote. The volume figures are not included in this excerpt, and volume would not establish liquidity or trader count in any case.
The sample warning states that the included markets do not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The saved event is therefore not a complete field of possible impeachment targets. The evidence also contains no information on recent events, past forecasting accuracy, or any scheduled House action before the listed close.
References
- Polymarket: Who will be impeached by June 30, 2027?. Provider data observed 2026-11-07T09:00:06.323Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 7, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled "Who will be impeached by June 30, 2027?" in the Politics category. The event is a set of separate yes or no contracts, each asking whether the U.S. House of Representatives will impeach one named individual in connection with that person's specified role. According to the contract rules, a market resolves "Yes" if the House adopts one or more articles of impeachment against the specified individual between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves "No" [1]. The rules state that neither a trial nor a conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary for a "Yes" resolution. Adoption of articles by the House is the trigger [1]. The rules also say that if the named individual permanently vacates the specified office before any article of impeachment is adopted, the market immediately resolves "No" [1]. The primary resolution source is official information from the U.S. House of Representatives, including the Office of the Clerk and Congress.gov. The rules add that a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The listed end time is 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z, which corresponds to the June 30, 2027 deadline in Eastern Time [1]. That date is a contract closing time. It is not an announced House schedule or a forecast of when any action will occur. The saved event includes eight markets, one for each named individual, and all eight are included in the sample [1]. Each market is a separate contract, so prices on one name should not be read as a ranking or comparison against another event's outcomes.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow procedural event: whether the House adopts one or more articles of impeachment against a named individual before the stated deadline [1]. It does not measure whether that person is convicted, removed, or otherwise found to have committed wrongdoing. The rules make the House vote the decisive step and treat Senate action as outside the resolution condition [1]. The rules also show why the wording matters for interpretation. Resolution depends on official House records or, alternatively, a consensus of credible reporting [1]. Traders reading the contract should check the specified role for each individual, since the rules tie the question to that role [1]. The early-exit condition for permanent departure from office means that a change in office can settle a contract before the deadline [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-07 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for a market to resolve Yes?
The U.S. House of Representatives must adopt one or more articles of impeachment against the specified individual in connection with their specified role, between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].
Is a Senate trial or conviction required?
No. The rules state that neither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve the market to Yes [1].
What happens if the named person leaves the office before articles are adopted?
If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office before any article of impeachment is adopted, the market immediately resolves to No [1].
Which sources decide the outcome?
The primary resolution source is official information from the U.S. House of Representatives, including the Office of the Clerk and Congress.gov. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Does the June 30, 2027 date mean a House vote is scheduled?
No. The date is the contract's listed end time, which sets the close of the window for resolution. The contract rules do not describe any scheduled House action [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
