Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?
PM $354.14 · K 1.1K contracts
2
3
Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?
PM $354.14 · K 1.1K contracts
2
3
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $354.14 · K 1.1K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Nov 3, 2026 If X has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Montana US Senate and New Jersey US Senate as of Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share, expressed as percentage, between first and second place finishers, using total votes cast as the denominator. If official results aren't available by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used. If multiple elections have identical margins and relevant options are listed, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options. This market will close and expire early if all election results are certified.
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks which of two races will have the smaller margin of victory: the November 3, 2026 general election for Montana US Senate or for New Jersey US Senate [1]. The margin is "the absolute difference in vote share, expressed as percentage, between first and second place finishers, using total votes cast as the denominator" [1]. The market resolves on results "as of Nov 10, 2026" [1]. If official results are unavailable by the deadline, "preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used" [1].
Ties are handled separately. If tied options are listed, "each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options" [1]. The event may also "close and expire early if all election results are certified" [1]. The excerpt lists no end time for the event, so the only close date in the evidence is the Nov 10, 2026 market end date [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation was taken at 2026-10-15T21:00:05Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T21:58:00Z. These are past readings from the saved record, not live prices. The Montana "Yes" contract was priced at 0.68 and the New Jersey "Yes" contract at 0.32 [1]. Each market also has a "No" outcome at the complementary price. These are snapshots, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The two markets are phrased as mirror questions about the same event. Their prices sum to 1.00 in this snapshot, which reflects how the pair is structured. The prices should be read within this single event and not compared with contracts on other platforms, which may use different wording, resolution sources, or deadlines. Volume is not included in this interpretation because it does not measure liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes both saved markets for this event, and the record reports no partial sample [1]. The sample warning still states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The evidence does not show current prices, the reasons prices moved, or any results from the races.
References
- Kalshi: Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event titled "Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?" The event asks which of two November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general elections will have the smallest margin of victory. The contract rules define the margin as the absolute difference in vote share, expressed as a percentage, between the first and second place finishers, using total votes cast as the denominator [1]. The comparison is made as of November 10, 2026 [1]. Each market in the event is a Yes or No contract on one of the two races. One contract asks whether the Montana race will have the smallest margin, and the other asks the same about the New Jersey race [1]. The rules include a fallback for timing. If official results are not available by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of the expected vote are used [1]. If two or more elections have identical margins and the relevant options are listed, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options [1]. The rules also state that the market will close and expire early if all election results are certified [1]. The date November 10, 2026 appears in the contract rules as a comparison date. It is not an announced event date or a confirmed certification date. The saved snapshot shows both markets as active, with a listed end time for the event that was not supplied [1]. Contract prices in a snapshot are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the volume figures shown elsewhere do not measure liquidity or the number of traders.
Historical Context
Senate elections in the United States are held on a rotating cycle. The 2006 Senate elections were held on November 7, 2006, with all 33 Class 1 seats contested, and the source notes that Republicans controlled 55 of the 100 seats before that cycle [2]. The 2020 New Jersey Senate election was held on November 3, 2020, concurrently with the presidential election and other contests. Its primary was moved from June 2 to July 7, 2020, because of COVID-19 concerns [3]. These sources describe past elections only. They do not provide information about the 2026 races or their candidates, results, or margins.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which of two specific Senate races will be the closer one by a single statistic, the vote-share margin between the top two finishers [1]. Because the rule uses percentage shares rather than raw vote counts, the comparison depends on the total votes cast in each race. The tie rule splits payment among tied options, and the early-close clause means the event may end before the nominal comparison date if all results are certified [1]. Anyone reading a price should keep in mind how the margin is defined and when resolution would occur under the stated rules.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated in this contract?
The margin is the absolute difference in vote share, expressed as a percentage, between first and second place finishers. Total votes cast is the denominator [1].
What happens if official results are not available by the deadline?
Preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of the expected vote are used in that case [1].
How are ties handled?
If multiple elections have identical margins and the relevant options are listed, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options [1].
Could the market close before November 10, 2026?
The rules state that the market will close and expire early if all election results are certified [1]. The rules do not supply a separate announced certification date.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
