Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire?
PM $1.5K · K 14.6K contracts
2
3
Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire?
PM $1.5K · K 14.6K contracts
2
3
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.5K · K 14.6K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Nov 3, 2026 If X has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Michigan US Senate and New Hampshire US Senate as of Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share, expressed as percentage, between first and second place finishers, using total votes cast as the denominator. If official results aren't available by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used. If multiple elections have identical margins and relevant options are listed, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options. This market will close and expire early if all election results are certified.
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks which of two U.S. Senate races, Michigan or New Hampshire, will have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections. [1] The margin is the absolute difference in vote share between the first and second place finishers, expressed as a percentage, using total votes cast as the denominator. [1] Each saved market resolves Yes if its race has the smallest margin as of November 10, 2026. [1] If official results are unavailable by the deadline, the contract uses preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote. [1] If margins tie, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options. [1]
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T14:58:16.578Z. [1] The saved Yes price for the Michigan market was 0.80, and the saved Yes price for the New Hampshire market was 0.185. [1] These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Both markets belong to the same event and carry the same listed end date, 2026-11-10T15:00:00.000Z, so they can be compared with each other within this event. [1] Their prices should not be averaged or combined into a single figure, because they describe different races and the saved sample contains only these two markets. The No prices in each market are the complements of the Yes prices shown. [1]
The evidence does not include volume, trader counts, or liquidity, so it cannot show how many participants hold these views or how easily positions could be traded.
What remains uncertain
The source excerpt states that the listed end time was not supplied, while the market records show an end date of 2026-11-10T15:00:00.000Z. [1] The contract also says it will close and expire early if all election results are certified, so the actual close may differ from the listed date. [1] The evidence contains no official results, so no outcome is established in this snapshot. The sample includes all saved markets for this event, but the provider notes that this does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed. [1]
References
- Kalshi: Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire?. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks which of two 2026 United States Senate races will have the smallest margin of victory. The event is titled "Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire?" and is listed on Kalshi [1]. The rules say that if Michigan's race has the smallest margin among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for the Michigan and New Hampshire US Senate seats, as of November 10, 2026, the Michigan contract resolves to Yes [1]. A separate contract asks the same question for New Hampshire [1]. The margin is measured as the absolute difference in vote share, expressed as a percentage, between the first and second place finishers, with total votes cast as the denominator [1]. If official results are not available by the deadline, the rules use preliminary results from Source Agencies that report at least 95% of the expected vote [1]. If several elections have identical margins and the relevant options are listed, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options [1]. The rules also state that the market will close and expire early if all election results are certified [1]. The November 10 date appears in the contract's resolution wording, so it is a resolution reference rather than an announced event date. The saved snapshot, observed at 12:00 UTC on October 17, 2026, showed the Michigan Yes contract at 0.80 and the New Hampshire Yes contract at 0.185 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they describe only the moment they were recorded. The saved event includes two markets, both of which are shown here [1].
Historical Context
The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 3, 2020, alongside the presidential election and other federal and state contests [3]. The 2020 article notes that it was one of two Democratic-held Senate seats up that year in a state Donald Trump won in 2016 [3]. The 2026 Michigan race is described separately in its own article, which lists the nominees named above [2]. The supplied sources do not provide a history of the New Hampshire race, so this background is limited to Michigan.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a comparison between two races rather than the outcome of either race on its own. It resolves based on which general election has the narrowest percentage gap between the top two finishers, using total votes cast as the base [1]. A trader therefore needs to understand the margin formula and the tie and preliminary-result rules, not only which candidate is favored [1]. The Michigan race's background, including the nominees and the open seat after Gary Peters's decision not to run again, is relevant context for the comparison [2]. Because the contract depends on exact vote shares, the official certification and the deadline rules determine what final figure is used [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Michigan Yes contract need to happen?
The Michigan contract resolves to Yes if Michigan's US Senate general election has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Michigan and New Hampshire, as of November 10, 2026 [1].
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference in vote share, expressed as a percentage, between the first and second place finishers, using total votes cast as the denominator [1].
What happens if two races have the same margin?
If multiple elections have identical margins and the relevant options are listed, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options [1].
What if official results are not ready by the deadline?
If official results are not available by the deadline, the contract uses preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
