Name: April Inflation US - Annual
End: 2026-05-12T00:00:00.000Z

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April Inflation US - Annual | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $22.08K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $22.08K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Poly	26%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?	Poly	22%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?	Poly	19%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?	Poly	18%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.4% in April?	Poly	8%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April?	Poly	6%
Will annual inflation increase by 4.0% in April?	Poly	3%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April?	Poly	3%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤3.1% in April?	Poly	1%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in April?	Poly	1%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in April?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

26%

Top Probability

$22.08K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.ht

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, April 19, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** April Inflation US - Annual
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 12, 2026 (23 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.ht

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $22.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $63.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.35)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will annual inflation increase by ≤3.1% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $821
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $515
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $406
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will annual inflation increase by 3.4% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $890
  DATA: [Yes: 21.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $776
  DATA: [Yes: 18.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will annual inflation increase by 4.0% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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