Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner
PM $155.2K
1
5
Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner
PM $155.2K
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Loranne Ausley at 71.5%.
Polymarket
- Loranne Ausley71.5%
- Jeremy Matlow26.6%
- Michael Foust<0.1%
- Daryl Parks<0.1%
- Al Lawson<0.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $155.2K
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 Tallahassee mayoral election will be held on August 18, 2026, to elect the mayor of Tallahassee, Florida. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Tallahassee as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Tallahassee or the State of Florida.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers the Polymarket event "Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner," in the Politics category. The rules state that the market "will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Tallahassee as a result of this election" [1]. The election is listed for August 18, 2026, with a runoff on November 3, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority [1]. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election are not considered [1].
The rules also set a fallback. If the result "isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other"" [1]. The primary resolution source is "a consensus of credible reporting," with official City of Tallahassee or State of Florida information used if results are ambiguous [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-17 12:00:05 UTC, and the source was retrieved at 12:33:17 UTC [1]. These are saved snapshots, not live or executable quotes.
Each candidate has a separate Yes/No contract. The saved Yes prices were: Loranne Ausley 0.535, Jeremy Matlow 0.4445, Daryl Parks 0.0215, Al Lawson 0.001, and Michael Foust 0.0005 [1]. These prices are not verified probabilities, and the evidence does not explain them.
The listed end time for every contract is 2026-08-19 03:59 UTC, which is earlier than the observation time, yet the status is reported as active [1]. The listed end time should not be read as the resolution date. The rules tie resolution to the election result and the April 30, 2027 fallback [1]. Volume and trader counts are not supplied, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes all five saved markets for this event, and it is not marked as partial [1]. The sample warning still states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A candidate not shown here should not be assumed to have a lower price.
The evidence does not report election results, whether the August election or a November runoff has taken place, or any reasons for the price levels. Only one provider source is supplied, so these prices should not be compared with contracts on other platforms without matching their wording and close times.
References
- Polymarket: Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner. The contract rules state that the 2026 Tallahassee mayoral election will be held on August 18, 2026, to elect the mayor of Tallahassee, Florida, and that a runoff will be held on November 3, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of the vote [1]. The market resolves according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor as a result of this election [1]. The rules also set out several conditions that affect how the market settles. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election are not considered [1]. If the result is not known by April 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, but if the results are ambiguous, the market resolves according to official information from the City of Tallahassee or the State of Florida [1]. The saved event includes five separate yes or no contracts, each asking whether a named person will win the election [1]. Each contract is its own market, so the Yes and No prices within one contract are not a ranking of the candidates against each other. The saved listing shows a listed end time of 2026-08-19T03:59:00 UTC [1]. That time is when the listing is set to close, which is not the same as the date the result is confirmed or the market resolves. The contract text ties resolution to the outcome of the election itself, and the earliest date in the rules is the election date, not an announced result.
Historical Context
The only historical material supplied for this entry concerns the officeholder background described in the Wikipedia article on John E. Dailey, which states that he has served as mayor since 2018 and previously sat on the Leon County Commission [2]. The supplied material does not describe earlier Tallahassee mayoral elections, so this entry does not offer a broader history of the office. A separate Wikipedia article on the 2018 Florida gubernatorial election was also retrieved, but it concerns a state race and does not bear on this contract [3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures which candidate will become the next mayor of Tallahassee as a result of the 2026 election process described in the rules [1]. Because the rules allow for a November 3, 2026 runoff, the eventual result may depend on that second round rather than the August 18 vote alone [1]. The rules also make clear that interim or placeholder mayors do not count, and that an unresolved outcome by April 30, 2027 leads to an "Other" resolution [1]. Anyone reading the prices should keep in mind that they reflect a single saved snapshot and do not show what a trade would cost, and that a larger trading volume would not by itself indicate how many people are trading or how deep the market is.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What election does this contract refer to?
The rules refer to the 2026 Tallahassee mayoral election, which is scheduled for August 18, 2026, to elect the mayor of Tallahassee, Florida [1].
What happens if no candidate wins a majority in August?
According to the rules, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026 [1].
Do interim or appointed mayors count toward the contract?
No. The rules state that temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered [1].
What happens if the result is unknown by the deadline?
The rules state that if the result is not known by April 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other" [1].
How will the winner be determined?
The primary source is a consensus of credible reporting. If the results are ambiguous, the market resolves according to official information from the City of Tallahassee or the State of Florida [1].
Does the listed end time mean the result is known?
No. The saved listing shows an end time of 2026-08-19T03:59:00 UTC, but the contract rules tie resolution to the election outcome and its reporting, not to that timestamp alone [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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