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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?

Name: Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$222.74

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?

Vol

$222.74

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $222.74

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $222.74

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?	Poly	92%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$222.74

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Nevada voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Question 6) which, if passed, would enshrine the right to abortion in the Nevada Constitution. Under Nevada's constitution, citizen-initiated constitutional amendments must be approved in two successive general elections to take effect. The 2026 vote is the required second and final ratification. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nevada Question 6, the Right to Abortion Initiative, pa

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Nevada voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Question 6) which, if passed, would enshrine the right to abortion in the Nevada Constitution. Under Nevada's constitution, citizen-initiated constitutional amendments must be approved in two successive general elections to take effect. The 2026 vote is the required second and final ratification.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nevada Question 6, the Right to Abortion Initiative, pa

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $223
* **Total Liquidity:** $123
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.81)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $223
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics