Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This snapshot covers one Polymarket event, "Quintana Roo Governor Election Winner." Each contract asks whether a named candidate will win the 2027 Quintana Roo gubernatorial election [1]. The source states that elections "are currently scheduled to be held in Quintana Roo on June 6, 2027" [1]. That is a description from the contract rules, not a confirmed event announcement in this evidence.

The rules set several conditions. A candidate's contract resolves based on the listed candidate who wins the election, and "Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify" [1]. If results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution follows "a consensus of credible reporting," and if there is ambiguity, it rests on official results from Quintana Roo and Mexican government sources [1]. The listed end time for each contract is 2027-06-07T03:59:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract closing time, not the date a result will be known or resolved.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:15:58.377Z [1]. These are point-in-time snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they may not reflect current conditions.

The sample is partial. The event has 16 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The included contracts are ordered by Yes price, so the four omitted contracts are not known to have lower prices than the ones shown. Within the sample, the Yes price for Eugenio Segura Vázquez is 0.795, the highest shown, and the rest range from 0.0025 to 0.0505 [1]. Each contract is a separate yes or no question, so the Yes prices should not be added or averaged as if they were a single probability distribution. The 12 included Yes prices total about 0.94, but the missing four make that total incomplete.

Volume is not included in this evidence, so it cannot be used to judge liquidity or trader participation. The evidence also gives no reason for any price level.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not identify the four omitted markets, their prices, or their closing terms. It does not establish whether any candidate is currently an interim or caretaker governor, since the rules exclude such officeholders from qualifying. It also contains no news, polling, or explanation for the observed prices. Readers comparing this event with other platforms should check that wording, resolution sources, and close times match before comparing any prices.

References

1. Polymarket: Quintana Roo Governor Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.