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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Campeche Governor Election Winner

Campeche Governor Election Winner
Vol

PM $28.8K

|
Events

1

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Markets

26

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus at 71%.

Polymarket

  1. Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus71%
  2. Eliseo Fernández Montúfar18.3%
  3. Carlos Ucán Yam0.5%
  4. Aníbal Ostoa Ortega0.5%
  5. Daniel Barreda Pavón0.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $28.8K

Reported volume · provider units

26

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Campeche on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Campeche gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Campeche and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Campeche and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The source describes a market on the winner of the 2027 Campeche gubernatorial election. It says that "Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Campeche on June 6, 2027." [1] The market resolves to the listed candidate who wins that election, and "Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify." [1]

The rules also set a fallback. If "the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other"." [1] The listed end time is 2027-06-07T03:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not an announced election date, and the evidence does not report any result.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-20T04:56:07.802Z [1]. The prices describe that observation window only. They are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

The sample is partial. The saved event contains 26 markets, and 12 are included [1]. Included markets were chosen by finite Yes price, descending, then volume. The evidence provides no prices for the 14 omitted markets, so this snapshot cannot describe them.

Among the included markets, Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus has a Yes price of 0.7 and Eliseo Fernández Montúfar has 0.1865 [1]. Aníbal Ostoa Ortega, Daniel Barreda Pavón, and Carlos Ucán Yam each have a Yes price of 0.0055 [1]. These figures come from one provider event and should not be compared with other events or platforms.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not state who won, does not explain why prices are at these levels, and does not report recent news. It also omits volume and trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold a view.

The resolution text says the market will resolve "based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting." If there is ambiguity, it "will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Campeche and Mexico" [1]. Differences in listed prices between candidates reflect separate contracts, so they do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.

References

  1. Polymarket: Campeche Governor Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTC

Overview

This PredictPedia contract asks which candidate will win the 2027 gubernatorial election in Campeche, Mexico. The contract rules say the election is scheduled for June 6, 2027 [1]. The rules state that the market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins that election, and that any interim or caretaker governor will not qualify [1]. The contract is a multi-outcome event. Each named candidate has its own yes or no market under the same event, and the saved event data lists 26 markets in total. The saved sample includes 12 of those markets, so the other candidates in the event are not shown here [1]. Each market in the sample lists a yes price and a no price, and the two prices in each market are reported as separate values in the data. The contract rules also set a fallback. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1]. The listed end time in the saved data is 2027-06-07T03:59:00Z [1]. That timestamp is the contract's listed closing time. It is not a statement that the election result will be announced at that moment, and the election date itself comes from the contract rules. For resolution, the rules say the outcome will follow a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the rules say resolution will rely solely on official results reported by government sources in Campeche and Mexico, naming the Electoral Institute of Campeche and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico [1]. A reader should check those official sources and the contract rules directly before drawing conclusions about how a result would be handled. The date of the Campeche contest sits within a wider calendar. A reference article states that the 2027 Mexican local elections are scheduled for June 6, 2027, concurrently with the 2027 federal elections, and that voters will elect 17 governors, members of 31 local congresses, and numerous municipal authorities [3]. That article describes the schedule. It does not establish any result, and the excerpt does not list Campeche among the states voting for governor.

Historical Context

The supplied background is limited to scheduling. A reference article states that the 2027 Mexican local elections are scheduled for June 6, 2027, concurrently with the 2027 federal elections [3]. The contract rules similarly describe the 2027 Campeche gubernatorial elections as currently scheduled for that date [1]. The supplied material does not include past Campeche gubernatorial results, so this section does not describe prior elections.

Why It Matters

The contract measures which named candidate will win the 2027 gubernatorial election in Campeche, as defined by the contract rules [1]. The rules exclude interim or caretaker governors from qualifying, which means the market is about the elected winner rather than who holds the office in the meantime [1]. The fallback to Other for an unresolved result by the stated deadline is a specific rule that affects how an outcome would be settled if the result is not definitively known in time [1]. Because the schedule is tied to a wider set of 2027 Mexican elections [3], the contract is one of several linked political questions that share a common calendar.

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the election the contract refers to?

The contract rules say the 2027 Campeche gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held on June 6, 2027 [1]. A reference article describes the same date as part of the 2027 Mexican local elections [3].

Would an interim or caretaker governor count as the winner?

No. The contract rules state that any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify for the market [1].

What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?

The contract rules say that if the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to Other [1].

What sources determine the outcome?

The rules say resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, resolution relies solely on official results from government sources in Campeche and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Campeche and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico [1].

Was this helpful?
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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