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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?

Name: U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?
End: 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.87K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?

Vol

$3.87K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.87K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.87K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?	Poly	81%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

81%

Top Probability

$3.87K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any United States passports containing images or representations of Donald Trump’s face are issued by the United States government by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The passports must actually be issued to U.S. citizens. Proposals, approvals, announcements that qualifying passports will be issued, or unreleased sample passports will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official informat

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 31, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if any United States passports containing images or representations of Donald Trump’s face are issued by the United States government by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The passports must actually be issued to U.S. citizens. Proposals, approvals, announcements that qualifying passports will be issued, or unreleased sample passports will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official informat

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any United States passports containing images or representations of Donald Trump’s face are issued by the United States government by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The passports must actually be issued to U.S. citizens."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $13.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics