GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

Name: Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$18.73M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

Vol

$18.73M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $11.43M

Kalshi

markets · $7.31M

Price Spread

0.2%avg

max 0.2%

Arbitrage

of 1 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.73M

61%

39%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Trump out as President before 2027?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(1)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Trump out as President before 2027?	6%	5%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(2)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

25%

Top Probability

$18.73M

Volume

Markets

10.6%

Price Gap

About This Event

Before 2027 If Donald Trump leaves office before January X Y then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, October 8, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If Donald Trump leaves office before January X Y then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely to "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.73M
* **Total Liquidity:** $355.2K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 52.74)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (1 mkts) vs Kalshi (3 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Donald Trump out before 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.89M
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.7% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $11.43M
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $560.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $851.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIPolitics

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

Volume$7.31M

Markets3

POLYMARKETPolitics

Trump out as President before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify

Volume$11.43M

Markets1

3 of 3

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?

If Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solel

KALSHI

Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?

If Donald Trump leaves office before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Donald Trump out before 2027?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average5.4%

Polymarket+0.2%

5.5%

Kalshi

5.3%

Difference:0.2%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 5.3¢No 94.7¢

KALSHIPolitics

Donald Trump out before 2027?

If Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely to

Trump out as President before 2027?

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Next Market Closes

84d 21h remaining

Jan 01, 2027 4:59 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

6¢

Polymarket

5¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

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Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)