Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?
PM $828.6K
1
1
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?
PM $828.6K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 5.5%.
Polymarket
- December 315.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $828.6K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration. Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify. Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Polymarket event asks whether Raul Castro will be in U.S. government custody by a specified date. The rules say the market "will resolve to "Yes" if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. The rules also state that custody must involve U.S. government personnel, and that "Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro's presence in U.S. spaces" in a voluntary, non-detained capacity "will not qualify" [1]. Custody by non-U.S. forces qualifies only if U.S. personnel are physically present and assume control, or if a later transfer into U.S. custody occurs [1].
The wording differs across fields. The contract text names June 30, 2026, while the saved market title reads "Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The evidence does not explain this discrepancy. Readers should rely on the resolution language in the rules, not the short title, and should note that the listed end time is a provider field, not an announced event.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:32:07.716Z [1]. This is a snapshot from that observation time, not a live quote. The status was recorded as active [1].
The only saved prices are Yes at 0.035 and No at 0.965 [1]. These figures show what the provider recorded at that moment. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The evidence contains no volume or liquidity figures, so nothing can be said about depth or trading activity.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, with no omitted markets (partialSample is false) [1]. No other platform or outcome is included, so there is no comparison to draw and no basis for averaging across platforms.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain the price, identify any news or events affecting it, or show how traders view the question. It also cannot establish whether the custody outcome has occurred, because no resolution has been recorded in the supplied material. The sample warning notes that the providers may not list every possible real-world outcome [1]. Readers should check the contract rules and any later resolution record before drawing conclusions.
References
- Polymarket: Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia tracks a Polymarket event titled "Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?" [1]. The contract asks whether Raul Castro will be taken into U.S. government custody within a set window. The market title describes him as an ex-Cuba leader [1]. The supplied background does not cover his later career or current position, so this article focuses on how the contract is defined. The resolution rules say the market resolves "Yes" if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by the stated deadline, and "No" otherwise [1]. Custody covers physical detention, arrest, capture, or any other assumption of physical custodial control by U.S. government personnel, including military, CIA, personnel of other agencies, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority. Custody does not depend on location or duration [1]. Several situations are excluded. Visits, interactions with U.S. personnel, or his presence in U.S. spaces such as vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings do not qualify if he is not detained [1]. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel, in which he submits to U.S. custody, does qualify [1]. Custody carried out by non-U.S. entities, including allied or partner forces, does not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control, or unless a later transfer into U.S. custody occurs [1]. The rules name official U.S. government information and a consensus of credible reporting as the resolution sources [1].
Historical Context
The supplied background on Fidel Castro covers the Cuban Revolution from 1953 to 1959. It describes the failed July 1953 attack on the Moncada Barracks, Fidel's trial and 15-year sentence, his pardon by Batista's government in May 1955, and his flight to Mexico with his brother Raul Castro, where the two assembled a small revolutionary force [3]. A separate Wikipedia excerpt describes Elian Gonzalez as a Cuban engineer and politician who, as a six-year-old, was at the center of an international custody dispute between family members that involved Cuba and the United States [2]. That excerpt does not link the dispute to Raul Castro or to this contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, narrowly defined event: whether Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody before its deadline [1]. The definition focuses on physical custodial control by U.S. personnel rather than on diplomatic contact, presence in U.S. facilities, or actions by third countries [1]. Because the terms separate these cases, the outcome depends on the rules as written, not on general news about Cuba or the United States [1]. The market's price is a snapshot of the Yes and No outcomes at the observation time. It is not an executable quote or a verified probability.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Would a visit or meeting with U.S. officials count as custody?
No. Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, and presence in U.S. spaces in a voluntary, non-detained capacity do not qualify [1].
Would a voluntary surrender count?
Yes. The rules say a voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel, in which he submits to U.S. custody, will qualify [1].
Would custody by allied or partner forces count?
Not by itself. Custody by non-U.S. entities does not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs [1].
What is the deadline?
The rule text says the market resolves "Yes" if custody occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The market title and the listed end time refer to December 31 and 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The supplied sources do not explain this difference, so the rule text and the listed end date should be read as they appear in the source.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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