Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

Name: Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$7.99K

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Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

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Polymarket

markets · $7.99K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.99K

100%

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1 market tracked

Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

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Top Probability

$7.99K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (258 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.

If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified d"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $24.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.33)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $8.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

257d 8h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

4¢

Polymarket

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Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

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Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

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About This Event

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Events (1)