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Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

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July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

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Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	43%
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	42%
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	1%

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43%

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About This Event

For Jul 2026 If ALL of the following occur for Jul 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Federal Funds Rate Decision uses FEDDECISION, Dissents uses FOMCDISSENTCO

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** For Jul 2026

If ALL of the following occur for Jul 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Federal Funds Rate Decision uses FEDDECISION, Dissents uses FOMCDISSENTCO

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If ALL of the following occur for Jul 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp cut, Dissents:   0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes im"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

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KALSHI

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.5¢No 57.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

If ALL of the following occur for Jul 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes imp

KALSHI

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?

KALSHI

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?

If ALL of the following occur for Jul 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes im

KALSHI

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

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21¢

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July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

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Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

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Events (1)

July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Markets (4)

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

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Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026?

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