Snapshot observed 2026-11-10T00:00:05.955Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event, "November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)," is listed in the Climate category. It resolves to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released [1]. The primary source is the figure in the "Nov" column of the "2026" row of NASA's "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" table [1]. An anomaly within a named bracket is stated to resolve the market once the data is available, even if the figure is later revised [1].

The rules say the brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, with both endpoints inclusive, and that the reported anomaly is rounded to the nearest 0.01ºC [1]. Some market titles use "more than" or "less than" wording, so readers should check the endpoint rule when a value sits on a boundary. If NASA provides no November 2026 information by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. That is a rule deadline, not an announced release date.

Reading the snapshot

The saved provider observation time is 2026-11-10T00:00:05.955Z, and the source excerpt carries the same retrieval timestamp [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-02T04:59:00.000Z, and all six markets show an active status [1]. This describes the saved snapshot only, not current conditions.

The snapshot includes all six saved markets for this event, and the partial sample flag is false [1]. The Yes prices in the snapshot are: above 1.54ºC at 0.61; 1.50 to 1.54ºC at 0.28; 1.45 to 1.49ºC at 0.11; 1.40 to 1.44ºC at 0.055; below 1.35ºC at 0.0265; and 1.35 to 1.39ºC at 0.0265 [1]. These Yes prices sum to about 1.11, so they are not normalized to one in this snapshot. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence gives no volume or trader counts, and it does not explain any price movement.

What remains uncertain

The November 2026 value is not in the supplied evidence, so no bracket has been resolved. The sample warning states that the saved markets do not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1]. Prices reflect only this snapshot and may have changed since. Different brackets carry different prices because they cover different ranges, so their prices should not be read as an arbitrage signal. No cross-platform comparison is possible from this evidence.

References

1. Polymarket: November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC). Provider data observed 2026-11-10T00:00:05.955Z.