California Recall Election Reform Proposition
PM $689.73
1
1
California Recall Election Reform Proposition
PM $689.73
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 28% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes28%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $689.73
Reported volume · provider units
1
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0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This market covers the California Recall Election Reform Proposition, which the source describes as "Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall." [1]
The contract resolves to "Yes" if the measure is approved by a majority of voters at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise it resolves to "No." [1] The rules also say that if voting does not occur, or the results are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, the market resolves to "No." [1] That March 31, 2027 date is a resolution deadline in the contract rules, not an announced event date.
Resolution relies on "a consensus of credible reporting," and if that is ambiguous, on "official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State." [1]
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:51:52.633Z. It is a record of that observation, not a live reading. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, which is later than the scheduled voting date, and that listed time is not a resolution time. [1]
The saved prices are "Yes" at 0.465 and "No" at 0.535. [1] These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They show how the two sides were priced at the observation time and do not indicate the chance of approval.
The sample covers one saved market for this event, and it is marked as not partial. The evidence does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome, but for this binary contract the two outcomes are the full set of listed prices. No other platform or event is included, so there is no cross-platform comparison here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and it does not report trading volume, the number of traders, or any news affecting the measure. The snapshot cannot tell a reader the current price after the retrieval time. Any reader comparing this contract with a different wording, deadline, or close time should treat the difference as a rule difference first, not as a pricing opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: California Recall Election Reform Proposition. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
Polymarket lists a contract titled "California Recall Election Reform Proposition" tied to Proposition 5, a California ballot measure that [1] describes as one that "would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall." The provider states that the measure is currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026 [1]. The contract is a yes or no market on whether voters approve the measure at that statewide general election. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to "Yes" if a majority of voters approve the measure, and to "No" otherwise [1]. The rules also resolve the market to "No" if voting on the measure does not occur, or if the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027 [1]. That March 2027 date is a resolution deadline written into the contract. It is not an announced event date. For resolution, the rules say the market will follow a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, it will rely on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State [1]. The listed end time of the contract is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That is the provider's contract closing time, which is separate from when votes are counted or when results are certified. A separate Wikipedia entry describes a different measure, Proposition 40, also on the November 3, 2026 ballot, known as the California billionaire tax or wealth tax [3]. The evidence does not connect that measure to this contract, so it should not be read as part of this market.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Proposition 5 passes at the scheduled November 3, 2026 California statewide general election. Its wording is specific. The market pays on a majority approval, and it treats a failure to hold the vote or an unclear result by March 31, 2027 as a "No" [1]. Anyone reading a price from this market should check those conditions first, because the contract can resolve to "No" even when the underlying question is still unsettled. The price snapshot shown alongside this article is a provider observation, not an executable quote or a verified probability of the measure passing.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes resolution require?
The market resolves to "Yes" if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1].
What happens if the measure is not voted on?
If voting on the measure does not occur, or the results are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, the market resolves to "No" [1].
What sources decide the outcome if reporting is unclear?
The market resolves on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State [1].
Is the listed end time the date of the vote?
No. The listed end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z is the contract's closing time as reported by the provider [1]. The vote itself is described as currently scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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