Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Steve Feinberg out as Deputy Secretary of Defense?

Total Volume

$5.00

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Steve Feinberg out as Deputy Secretary of Defense?

Vol

$5.00

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.00

100%

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3 markets tracked

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	61%
Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	42%
Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	14%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

61%

Top Probability

$5.00

Volume

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About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If Steve Feinberg has either officially announced their intention to leave Deputy Secretary of Defense or has actually left Deputy Secretary of Defense after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Steve Feinberg out as Deputy Secretary of Defense?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If Steve Feinberg has either officially announced their intention to leave Deputy Secretary of Defense or has actually left Deputy Secretary of Defense after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Steve Feinberg
 has either officially announced their intention to leave Deputy Secretary of Defense or has actually left Deputy Secretary of Defense after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Steve Feinberg out as Deputy Secretary of Defense?

Volume$5.00

Markets3

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KALSHI

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?

If Steve Feinberg has either officially announced their intention to leave Deputy Secretary of Defense or has actually left Deputy Secretary of Defense after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person

KALSHI

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?

If Steve Feinberg has either officially announced their intention to leave Deputy Secretary of Defense or has actually left Deputy Secretary of Defense after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person

KALSHI

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?

If Steve Feinberg has either officially announced their intention to leave Deputy Secretary of Defense or has actually left Deputy Secretary of Defense after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/H4tga-" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Steve Feinberg out as Deputy Secretary of Defense?"></iframe>

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Steve Feinberg out as Deputy Secretary of Defense?

Steve Feinberg out as Deputy Secretary of Defense?

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Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

Steve Feinberg out as Deputy Secretary of Defense?

Markets (3)

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?

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Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Steve Feinberg out as Deputy Secretary of Defense?

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?

Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?

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