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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

Name: Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$286.75

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

Vol

$286.75

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $286.75

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $286.75

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 31, 2026?	Poly	52%
Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 15, 2026?	Poly	38%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

Top Probability

$286.75

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primar

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.

The primar

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary c"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $109
* **Total Liquidity:** $55
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.97)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $82
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 15, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics