GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands

Name: Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands
End: 2026-08-12T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$52.03K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands

Vol

$52.03K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $52.03K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $52.03K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?	Poly	95%
Will Tina Browne be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?	Poly	3%
Will Teariki Heather be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$52.03K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by July

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 12, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by July

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections.

To count "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $52.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $22.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 12, 2026): Vol $41.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tina Browne  be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 12, 2026): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Teariki Heather be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 12, 2026): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics