Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The event asks which option Idaho voters will choose as the state gun in an advisory ballot measure. The source says the measure is scheduled for the statewide general election on November 3, 2026, and that its result would inform the state legislature [1]. Each listed market is a separate Yes or No contract on one named option. Under the event rules, the market resolves to the option with the highest finishing position by valid votes, with ties broken alphabetically [1]. If the vote does not occur, or its results are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed options are described with longer labels in their titles, such as the Winchester Model 1873 "Gun that Won the West" (.44-40), so readers should compare the full titles rather than short names [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-16T00:31:58.568Z [1]. These are snapshot values, not current quotes or verified probabilities. In this snapshot, the Yes price for the Winchester Model 1873 option is 0.575, the highest of the six listed. The 1873 Colt Single Action Army Peacemaker is at 0.195, the Colt M1911 at 0.09, the M1 Garand at 0.0495, the Winchester Model 1894 at 0.0455, and the Remington Model 700 at 0.005 [1].

The coverage record shows six total markets, six included, and no partial sample flag [1]. The source also warns that the saved markets do not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome [1]. The listed Yes prices sum to 0.96 in this snapshot. The evidence does not explain that remainder, so it should not be read as a share held by any unlisted option.

The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This falls after the November 3 election date stated in the rules, so the contract's close time and the vote date are different timestamps.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why prices sit at these levels, and it does not show whether they have changed since retrieval. It includes no recent reporting beyond the event rules. The rules name the Idaho Secretary of State as a source of official information if ambiguity arises, and they state that later litigation or failure to implement the measure will not affect resolution [1]. Differences in prices across these contracts reflect separate snapshot quotes and do not, by themselves, indicate an arbitrage opportunity.

References

1. Polymarket: What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.