GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?

Name: What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.01K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?

Vol

$6.01K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $6.01K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.01K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will voters pick the Winchester Model 1873 "Gun that Won the West" (.44-40) as the state gun of Idaho?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will voters pick the Winchester Model 1873 "Gun that Won the West" (.44-40) as the state gun of Idaho?	Poly	38%
Will voters pick the Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP) as the state gun of Idaho?	Poly	21%
Will voters pick the 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver "Peacemaker" (.45 Colt) as the state gun of Idaho?	Poly	12%
Will voters pick the Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30) as the state gun of Idaho?	Poly	9%
Will voters pick the M1 Garand rifle (.30-06) as the state gun of Idaho?	Poly	4%
Will voters pick the Remington Model 700 bolt-action rifle (.30-06) as the state gun of Idaho?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

38%

Top Probability

$6.01K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Idaho Official State Gun Question is an advisory ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would inform the state legislature as to the voters' choice for a state gun. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Idaho Official State Gun Question in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof ar

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (60 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The Idaho Official State Gun Question is an advisory ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would inform the state legislature as to the voters' choice for a state gun. 

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Idaho Official State Gun Question in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. 

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof ar

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Idaho Official State Gun Question is an advisory ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would inform the state legislature as to the voters' choice for a state gun. 

This market will resolve according to the winner of"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $18.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will voters pick the Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30) as the state gun of Idaho?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $748
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will voters pick the Winchester Model 1873 "Gun that Won the West" (.44-40) as the state gun of Idaho?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will voters pick the 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver "Peacemaker" (.45 Colt) as the state gun of Idaho?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will voters pick the M1 Garand rifle (.30-06) as the state gun of Idaho?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $275
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will voters pick the Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP) as the state gun of Idaho?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will voters pick the Remington Model 700 bolt-action rifle (.30-06) as the state gun of Idaho?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $459
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics