Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Hung Cao confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by...?

Name: Hung Cao confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by...?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.03K

Events

Markets

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Hung Cao confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by...?

Vol

$3.03K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.03K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.03K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by December 31?	Poly	38%
Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by November 30?	Poly	28%
Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by October 31?	Poly	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

38%

Top Probability

$3.03K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hung Cao is confirmed by the U.S. Senate as Secretary of the Navy by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Hung Cao's nomination is formally withdrawn, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Secretary of the Navy for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Hung Cao's service as Acting

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Hung Cao confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hung Cao is confirmed by the U.S. Senate as Secretary of the Navy by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Hung Cao's nomination is formally withdrawn, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee as Secretary of the Navy for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Hung Cao's service as Acting 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hung Cao is confirmed by the U.S. Senate as Secretary of the Navy by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Hung Cao's nomination is formally withdrawn, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must co"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $134
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics