Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029?

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$295.60

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Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029?

Vol

$295.60

Events

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Kalshi

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Kalshi

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Volume DistributionTotal: $295.60

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8 markets tracked

Will it be confirmed that U.S. Senator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be confirmed that U.S. Senator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?	Kalshi	52%
Will it be confirmed that Governor is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?	Kalshi	27%
Will it be confirmed that Vice President is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?	Kalshi	26%
Will it be confirmed that Cabinet Secretary is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?	Kalshi	25%
Will it be confirmed that State Legislator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?	Kalshi	20%
Will it be confirmed that U.S. Representative is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?	Kalshi	15%
Will it be confirmed that Mayor is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?	Kalshi	15%
Will it be confirmed that President is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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52%

Top Probability

$295.60

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About This Event

Before Feb 1, 2029 If X is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. Each market resolves independently and more than one can resolve YES. If the person has held none of the offices listed, every market resolves NO. "Previously held" means the person was sworn in and served in the office at any time befo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Feb 1, 2029

If X is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. Each market resolves independently and more than one can resolve YES. If the person has held none of the offices listed, every market resolves NO. "Previously held" means the person was sworn in and served in the office at any time befo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Vice President is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency.

Each market resolves inde"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $296
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be confirmed that Vice President is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2029): Vol $207
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be confirmed that State Legislator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be confirmed that U.S. Senator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2029): Vol $41
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will it be confirmed that U.S. Representative is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2029): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will it be confirmed that President is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will it be confirmed that Mayor is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will it be confirmed that Governor is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2029): Vol $37
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will it be confirmed that Cabinet Secretary is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029?

Volume$295.60

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that U.S. Senator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that U.S. Senator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

If U.S. Senator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. Each market resolves indepe

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Governor is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 26.5¢No 73.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that Governor is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

If Governor is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. Each market resolves independen

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Vice President is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that Vice President is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

If Vice President is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. Each market resolves inde

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Cabinet Secretary is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that Cabinet Secretary is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

If Cabinet Secretary is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. Each market resolves i

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that State Legislator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.0¢No 80.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that State Legislator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

If State Legislator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. Each market resolves in

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23¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/qPvPI8" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029?"></iframe>

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Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029?

Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029?

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Will it be confirmed that U.S. Senator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

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Events (1)

Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029?

Markets (8)

Will it be confirmed that U.S. Senator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that U.S. Senator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that Governor is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that Governor is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that Vice President is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that Vice President is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that Cabinet Secretary is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that Cabinet Secretary is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that State Legislator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that State Legislator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

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Will it be confirmed that U.S. Senator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029?

Will it be confirmed that U.S. Senator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that U.S. Senator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that Governor is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that Governor is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that Vice President is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that Vice President is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that Cabinet Secretary is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that Cabinet Secretary is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that State Legislator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

Will it be confirmed that State Legislator is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029?

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