GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Sonora Governor Election Winner

Name: Sonora Governor Election Winner
End: 2027-06-06T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$32.53K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Sonora Governor Election Winner

Vol

$32.53K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $32.53K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $32.53K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

19 markets tracked

Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	50%
Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	20%
Will Patricia Mercado Castro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	20%
Will Javier Lamarque Cano win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	13%
Will María Dolores del Río Sánchez win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	10%
Will Natalia Rivera Grijalva win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	5%
Will Ernesto Gándara Camou win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	5%
Will Lilly Téllez García win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	5%
Will Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	5%
Will Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	5%
Will Froylán Gámez Gamboa win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	5%
Will Heriberto Aguilar Castillo win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	3%
Will Rogelio Díaz Brown win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Manuel Scott Sánchez win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Víctor Hugo Celaya win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Guadalupe María Soto win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Omar del Valle Colosio win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Célida Teresa López Cárdenas win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Damián Zepeda Vidales win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$32.53K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Sonora Governor Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 6, 2027 (275 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by Decemb"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $32.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $166.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.20)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $23.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Javier Lamarque Cano win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Célida Teresa López Cárdenas win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $252
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will María Dolores del Río Sánchez win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $249
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Omar del Valle Colosio win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $300
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Froylán Gámez Gamboa win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $232
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Heriberto Aguilar Castillo win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $268
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $801
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Damián Zepeda Vidales win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $232
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Lilly Téllez García win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $281
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.1% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Ernesto Gándara Camou win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $519
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $288
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.1% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Rogelio Díaz Brown win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $232
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Víctor Hugo Celaya win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $254
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Guadalupe María Soto win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $277
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Patricia Mercado Castro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $318
  DATA: [Yes: 20.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.7% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Natalia Rivera Grijalva win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $267
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Manuel Scott Sánchez win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $258
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $466
  DATA: [Yes: 20.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics