Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum?

Total Volume

$4.68K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum?

Vol

$4.68K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.68K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.68K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum before 2030?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum before 2030?	Kalshi	23%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$4.68K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2030 If the Republic of Ireland agrees to or announces a formal government decision to hold a national referendum in the Republic of Ireland on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by aut

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2030

If the Republic of Ireland agrees to or announces a formal government decision to hold a national referendum in the Republic of Ireland on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:

Formal signing of treaties
Parliamentary approval with binding effect
Official ratification
Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority
Official statements by aut

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Republic of Ireland agrees to or announces a formal government decision to hold a national referendum in the Republic of Ireland on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the follow"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum before 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics