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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on November 4?

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on November 4?
Vol

PM $18.5K

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Events

1

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Markets

11

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Nov 4, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 10°C at 50.5%.

Polymarket

  1. 10°C50.5%
  2. 11°C47%
  3. 9°C4.2%
  4. 12°C3.1%
  5. 13°C0.3%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $18.5K

Reported volume · provider units

11

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 4, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (EHAM) on 4 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (EHAM) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (EHAM) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=EHAM&format=raw&date=2026-11-05T02:00:00Z&hours=30

This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.

Snapshot observed 2026-11-03T00:00:05.823Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event is a set of temperature-range markets for Amsterdam on November 4. The qualifying value is the highest temperature in routine (METAR) observations for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (EHAM) on that date. SPECI special observations do not count [1]. Temperatures are rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, with exact halves rounded up, so 16.5°C counts as 17°C [1]. Each market asks whether the qualifying value falls in one range, such as "Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on November 4?" [1].

If the Aviation Weather Center has no routine observation reporting a temperature by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the rules name the Weather Underground Daily Observations table as a fallback. If neither source has enough data by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-03T00:00:05.823Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-03T02:43:56.385Z [1]. These are snapshot quotes, not executable prices or verified probabilities. The highest Yes price was for 10°C at 0.53, followed by 11°C at 0.335 and 9°C at 0.11. Brackets at 8°C and above, and at 7°C and below, were each priced at 0.022 or less [1].

All 11 saved markets for this event are included, and the sample is not partial [1]. The Yes prices across the brackets sum to about 1.04, which is above 1. This does not by itself show a mispricing, and no arbitrage conclusion should be drawn from it.

The only platform in the evidence is Polymarket, so there is no cross-platform comparison.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not include the observed temperatures for November 4, any later price history, or the reasons prices moved. It also does not say how many traders hold each position, and the volume figures do not measure liquidity.

The listed end time is 2026-11-04T12:00:00.000Z [1]. The rules instead tie resolution to the first METAR issuance on the following day or 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first, and they allow up to seven calendar days for a corrected value if the source publishes clearly erroneous data [1]. Readers should check the rules directly rather than assume a single closing time.

References

  1. Polymarket: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on November 4?. Provider data observed 2026-11-03T00:00:05.823Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Nov 3, 2026 UTC

Overview

This PredictPedia market asks which temperature range will contain the highest temperature reported at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (EHAM) on 4 November 2026 [1]. The contract's rules name the routine aviation weather observations (METARs) for that station as the resolution source [1]. The saved event lists 11 markets, each covering a whole-degree Celsius range, and each has its own Yes and No prices [1]. The rules define the qualifying value precisely. It is the highest temperature in the hourly temperature remark of any routine METAR for EHAM on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported [1]. Special observations, marked SPECI, do not count, and other routine reports count even if they are issued off the nominal hour or carry no METAR label [1]. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time including any daylight-saving shift, falls on the observation date [1]. The rules also say that the report the resolution source shows for a given observation time counts whether or not it is marked as a correction [1]. Once the qualifying value is found, it is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, with values ending in exactly half rounded up [1]. For example, 13.9 degrees counts as 14 degrees, and negative values round the same way, so -8.5 degrees counts as -8 degrees [1]. The range containing that whole-degree value determines the outcome [1]. The rules include fallbacks. If the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the date by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead [1]. If neither source has published enough data by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. Where a source publishes clearly erroneous data from a technical or operational error, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days so a correction can be published [1]. The saved record shows a listed end time of 12:00 UTC on 4 November 2026 [1]. That is a date recorded in the provider data and rules, not a confirmed announcement of when the observations will be published or when the market will settle. The rules state that resolution occurs at the issuance of the first METAR for the following day or by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, whichever comes first [1].

Historical Context

The supplied Wikipedia material on 2026 European heatwaves describes a series of severe heatwaves that began in late May 2026 and affected many European countries [2]. It states that temperature records were broken in the Netherlands among other countries [2]. That history concerns the summer and spring period and does not describe conditions for 4 November 2026, so it should not be read as a current or forecast description of Amsterdam's weather on the contract date [2].

Why It Matters

The contract measures a single day's peak temperature at one airport station, as recorded in routine aviation weather reports [1]. Because each market covers one whole-degree range, the event as a whole asks which range will contain the official peak [1]. The precise rules matter for the outcome. Only routine observations count, the source's correction behaviour and time cutoffs affect which reading is used, and the rounding rule decides which bracket a value falls into [1]. Traders reading the prices should therefore check the observation and rounding rules before comparing a market's price to a temperature forecast [1].

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-03 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

Which weather station determines the outcome?

The contract uses routine observations for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, identified as EHAM [1].

Do special weather reports count toward the highest temperature?

No. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count, while other routine reports do count [1].

What happens if a routine report has no hourly temperature remark?

The temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported [1].

How is the final temperature converted into a range?

The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, with values ending in exactly half rounded up, and that whole value determines the range [1].

What if the main source does not publish a usable reading?

If the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine temperature observation for the date by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used [1]. If neither source has enough data by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].

Was this helpful?
Saved Nov 3, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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