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Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?

Name: How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$26.63K

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How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?

Vol

$26.63K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $26.63K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $26.63K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?	Poly	44%
Will Republicans win 3 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?	Poly	36%
Will Republicans win 1 Senate and Governor election in states won by Kamala?	Poly	7%
Will Republicans win 0 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?	Poly	6%
Will Republicans win 6 or more Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?	Poly	4%
Will Republicans win 5 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?	Poly	4%
Will Republicans win 4 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

44%

Top Probability

$26.63K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of Octobe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (60 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.

All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of Octobe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $26.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $70.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.38)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Republicans win 0 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Republicans win 1 Senate and Governor election in states won by Kamala?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $9.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Republicans win 3 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Republicans win 4 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Republicans win 5 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Republicans win 6 or more Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics