#2 US Netflix Movie this week?
K 10.4K contracts
1
15
#2 US Netflix Movie this week?
K 10.4K contracts
1
15
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Reminders of Him at 40.5%.
Kalshi
- Reminders of Him40.5%
- Tyler Perry's The Gospel of Christmas20.5%
- Heartland7.5%
- Funny Money: The Dane Cook Story2%
- Heist2%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 10.4K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
15
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
The chart published on Nov 17, 2026 If X is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie on the chart published on Nov 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday. Therefore, the market will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before. The chart published on Nov 17, 2026 will be for the week ending the previous Sunday. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Netflix. Any references to Netflix, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Netflix and Kalshi. The Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday. Therefore, the market will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-11T06:00:06.327Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks whether a named movie will be the number two title on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart. According to the Kalshi rules, "If X is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie on the chart published on Nov 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The same source says the chart "will be for the week ending the previous Sunday" [1].
The wording has an inconsistency that readers should check. The individual market titles refer to "#2 US Netflix Movie on Nov 16, 2026," while the rule text refers to the chart published on Nov 17, 2026 [1]. The rules also say the market "will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before" the chart is published [1]. The saved market records list an end date of 2026-11-23T15:00:00.000Z, but the event excerpt states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. These dates do not match, and this evidence does not resolve which one governs. A date in the rules is not an announced event, so none of these dates should be read as a confirmed schedule.
Reading the snapshot
The prices below were observed at 2026-11-11T06:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-11-11T07:37:30Z. They describe that snapshot only, not current conditions. Each Yes price is a snapshot, not an executable quote or a verified probability.
- A Dog's Perfect Christmas: Yes 0.20 [1]
- The Day After Tomorrow: Yes 0.08 [1]
- Kidnapped in Her Own Home: The Martha Carelli Story: Yes 0.025 [1]
- The Croods: Yes 0.02 [1]
- Six titles, including Love the Coopers, Champions, The Mummy, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, Don't Trust the Couple Upstairs, and Collision Course: Yes 0.005 each [1]
All ten saved markets for this event are included, and the sample is not partial [1]. The Yes prices in this sample total 0.38. The evidence does not show the other outcomes, so the remaining probability cannot be assigned from this data. The sample warning states that the providers may not list every possible outcome [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not show trading activity or how many participants hold each view. Volume is not liquidity. The rule wording differences, the Nov 16 and Nov 17 references, and the unsupplied listed end time all affect how the contract should be read. Different contracts with different prices are not an arbitrage opportunity by themselves, and this snapshot should not be used to compare with other platforms or with other chart events.
References
- Kalshi: #2 US Netflix Movie this week?. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T06:00:06.327Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 11, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks which movie will hold the second position on Netflix's weekly Top 10 chart for US movies. Under the rules shown on Kalshi, the market resolves to Yes if the film named in the contract is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on Nov 17, 2026 [1]. The rules say the Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday, and that the chart published on Nov 17, 2026 covers the week ending the previous Sunday [1]. The market's closing time is set relative to that update: the rules say it closes at 11:59 PM ET on the day before the chart is published [1]. The contract is therefore about a single weekly ranking, not about streaming viewership in general. Each listed contract names one movie and asks whether that title will occupy the second spot on the chart described in the rules [1]. The rules also state that the market and its products are not endorsed by Netflix and that references to Netflix are descriptive only [1]. The saved event data lists the contract titles as "on Nov 16, 2026," while the rule text refers to the chart published on Nov 17, 2026 [1]. Readers should rely on the rule text for resolution terms, since that is the wording the provider states as the resolving chart. The underlying chart is produced by Netflix, which Wikipedia describes as an American media company that owns and operates a subscription video on-demand service offering acquired and original programming, along with licensed third-party content [2]. A Wikipedia list of American films scheduled for release in 2026 is also among the supplied references [3], but that list does not show chart positions and does not bear on how this contract resolves.
Historical Context
Wikipedia states that Netflix, Inc. was founded on August 29, 1997, by Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph in Scotts Valley, California, and is currently based in Los Gatos, California [2]. The same source says the company is the first streaming media company to be a member of the Motion Picture Association [2]. These facts describe the company's background and do not establish anything about the current chart or this week's rankings.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow outcome: whether a specific movie lands in the second position on one published Netflix US movie chart [1]. Because the chart is updated weekly and the market closes before publication, traders are pricing a single ranking event with a defined resolution rule [1]. Its value to a reader lies mainly in understanding that the rule depends on the chart published on the stated date rather than on any general measure of popularity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-11 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome require?
A Yes outcome requires that the named film be #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on Nov 17, 2026 [1].
When does the market close?
The rules say the Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday and that the market closes at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart is published [1]. The saved event data also contains an end timestamp, but the rule text describes the closing condition, so the rules should be treated as the governing description.
Which week does the chart cover?
The rules state that the chart published on Nov 17, 2026 will be for the week ending the previous Sunday [1].
Are the prices in the market the probability of each film finishing second?
The prices are snapshots of the saved market data and are not verified probabilities or executable quotes. They reflect the observed prices at the time of retrieval and should not be read as confirmed chances of any outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
