Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T15:00:05.990Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event asks which movie will rank first on Netflix's US Top 10 movies list in an update expected on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET [1]. The source says the ranking reflects "total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies," and covers viewership from the previous week, Monday to Sunday [1].

Each listed contract asks whether one named title will be the top result. The source states that if "multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically" [1]. It also says that if the update does not occur "by November 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other"" [1]. The listed end time for each contract is 2026-11-18T04:59:00.000Z, which is a closing time, not a confirmed resolution date.

Reading the snapshot

The saved prices were observed at 2026-11-12T15:00:05.990Z and retrieved at 2026-11-12T16:36:10.996Z [1]. They describe that moment only and are not live quotes or executable prices.

The ten included Yes prices, as saved, are as follows. "The Gospel of Christmas" is at 0.62, "Reminders of Him" at 0.19, "Heartland" at 0.17, "Misty Green" at 0.078, "King Arthur: Legend of the Sword" at 0.025, "A Dog's Perfect Christmas" at 0.0245, "Kidnapped in Her Own Home: The Martha Carelli Story" at 0.02, "The Croods" at 0.0195, "Collision Course" at 0.0185, and "The Day After Tomorrow" at 0.011 [1].

These ten Yes prices add up to about 1.18 in this snapshot. Because they do not sum to one, they should not be read as calibrated probabilities. The sample is all markets saved for this single Polymarket event, with no cross-platform comparison, so no other platform's price applies here.

What remains uncertain

The saved sample includes all ten markets for this event, but the source notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Whether an unlisted title could rank first is not established by the evidence.

The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, how many traders hold each view, or how much volume supports them. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or trader count. The source describes the Netflix update as "expected," so the evidence does not confirm that it will occur on that date. Current prices may differ from this snapshot.

References

1. Polymarket: What will be the top US Netflix movie this week? (November 17). Provider data observed 2026-11-12T15:00:05.990Z.