Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

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$96.92K

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Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

Vol

$96.92K

Events

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Kalshi

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Kalshi

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Volume DistributionTotal: $96.92K

100%

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Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?	Kalshi	86%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?	Kalshi	8%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?	Kalshi	5%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Nevada holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

86%

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$96.92K

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About This Event

Before Apr 1, 2028 If X holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. X contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic National Committee sanctions, recognizes, or gives delegate effect to it. If multiple states vote on the same day, the market will resolve to 1 / Y where Y is the number of tied states. Only reporting from any

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Apr 1, 2028

If X holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. X contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic National Committee sanctions, recognizes, or gives delegate effect to it. If multiple states vote on the same day, the market will resolve to 1 / Y where Y is the number of tied states. Only reporting from any 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states  after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $96.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 8, 2028): Vol $30.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Nevada holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 8, 2028): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 8, 2028): Vol $33.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 8, 2028): Vol $28.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

Volume$96.92K

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KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

If New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic

KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

If Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic National

KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

If South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic

KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Nevada holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Nevada holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

If Nevada holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic Nationa

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Nr_wtU" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?"></iframe>

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Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

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Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

Markets (4)

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Nevada holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Nevada holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

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Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Nevada holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Nevada holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

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