Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This snapshot covers one Polymarket contract, "SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?" [1]. The contract resolves "Yes" only if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch for a rehearing in Trump v. Barbara by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. The rules state that "A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes"," and that a denied petition, or no petition filed by the applicable deadlines, resolves the market to "No" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, which corresponds to the 11:59PM ET deadline in the rules [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed the market at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:22:14.732Z [1]. These are snapshot times, not live quotes. The saved prices were "Yes" at 0.0985 and "No" at 0.9015 [1]. Read as quoted prices within this one snapshot, the "No" side traded higher than the "Yes" side. These figures are not executable quotes, and they should not be treated as verified probabilities.

The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows 1 total market, 1 included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because only one contract is present, there is no cross-platform comparison and no competing wording to reconcile. Volume and any trader count are not included in the saved record, so no liquidity or participation claims can be made.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show whether any rehearing petition has been filed or will be filed. It also does not explain why the quoted prices stand where they do. The resolution source is official Supreme Court information, though the rules state that "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. Readers should check the current status of the case and the listed rules directly, since this snapshot reflects only the observation time shown above.

References

1. Polymarket: SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.