GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will the filibuster be weakened?

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Will the filibuster be weakened?

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Polymarket

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3 markets tracked

Filibuster weakened before Jan 20, 2029

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Filibuster weakened before Jan 20, 2029	Kalshi	28%
Filibuster weakened before 2028	Kalshi	23%
Filibuster weakened before 2027	Kalshi	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

28%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

In 2025 If there is a change in U.S. Senate rules or precedent that lowers the threshold for cloture for any legislative action whose threshold for cloture at time of Issuance is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn before January X Y then the market resolves to Yes. Modifications to budget reconciliation rules are not encompassed and do not resolve the market to Yes. See full rules for examples. ???

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the filibuster be weakened?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2025

If there is a change in U.S. Senate rules or precedent that lowers the threshold for cloture for any legislative action whose threshold for cloture at time of Issuance is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn before January X Y then the market resolves to Yes. Modifications to budget reconciliation rules are not encompassed and do not resolve the market to Yes. See full rules for examples. ???

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If there is a change in U.S. Senate rules or precedent that lowers the threshold for cloture for any legislative action whose threshold for cloture at time of Issuance is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Mod"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Filibuster weakened before Jan 20, 2029
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Filibuster weakened before 2028
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Filibuster weakened before 2027
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Will the filibuster be weakened?

Volume$0.00

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KALSHI

Filibuster weakened before Jan 20, 2029

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Filibuster weakened before Jan 20, 2029

If there is a change in U.S. Senate rules or precedent that lowers the threshold for cloture for any legislative action whose threshold for cloture at time of Issuance is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Mod

KALSHI

Filibuster weakened before 2028

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Filibuster weakened before 2028

If there is a change in U.S. Senate rules or precedent that lowers the threshold for cloture for any legislative action whose threshold for cloture at time of Issuance is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Modi

KALSHI

Filibuster weakened before 2027

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Filibuster weakened before 2027

If there is a change in U.S. Senate rules or precedent that lowers the threshold for cloture for any legislative action whose threshold for cloture at time of Issuance is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Modi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Osuqxk" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the filibuster be weakened?"></iframe>

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Will the filibuster be weakened?

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Filibuster weakened before Jan 20, 2029

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Events (1)

Will the filibuster be weakened?

Markets (3)

Filibuster weakened before Jan 20, 2029

Filibuster weakened before Jan 20, 2029

Filibuster weakened before 2028

Filibuster weakened before 2028

Filibuster weakened before 2027

Filibuster weakened before 2027

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Filibuster weakened before Jan 20, 2029

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Will the filibuster be weakened?

Filibuster weakened before Jan 20, 2029

Filibuster weakened before Jan 20, 2029

Filibuster weakened before 2028

Filibuster weakened before 2028

Filibuster weakened before 2027

Filibuster weakened before 2027

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