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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

MT-01 Republican Primary Winner

Name: MT-01 Republican Primary Winner
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$855.67

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

MT-01 Republican Primary Winner

Vol

$855.67

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $855.67

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $855.67

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Aaron Flint be the Republican nominee for MT-01?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Aaron Flint be the Republican nominee for MT-01?	Poly	90%
Will Christi Jacobsen be the Republican nominee for MT-01?	Poly	50%
Will Albert Olszewski be the Republican nominee for MT-01?	Poly	6%
Will Ray Curtis be the Republican nominee for MT-01?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

90%

Top Probability

$855.67

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** MT-01 Republican Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 2, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announce"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $856
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ray Curtis be the Republican nominee for MT-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $113
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Christi Jacobsen be the Republican nominee for MT-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $230
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Aaron Flint be the Republican nominee for MT-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $238
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Albert Olszewski be the Republican nominee for MT-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $274
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics