Top Global Netflix Show this week?
K 6.7K contracts
1
10
Top Global Netflix Show this week?
K 6.7K contracts
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Taken: Natalee Holloway: Season 1 at 86.5%.
Kalshi
- Taken: Natalee Holloway: Season 186.5%
- Black Doves: Season 213.5%
- Will Trent: Season 11.5%
- The Diplomat: Season 41.5%
- The One About Matthew Perry: Season 11.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 6.7K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
The chart published on Nov 17, 2026 If X Y is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Nov 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday. Therefore, the market will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before. The chart published on Nov 17, 2026 will be for the week ending the previous Sunday. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Netflix. Any references to Netflix, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Netflix and Kalshi. The Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday. Therefore, the market will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-11T12:00:05.992Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event is titled "Top Global Netflix Show this week?" and lists ten markets, each asking whether a specific Netflix title will be the top global show on a given chart. The first market asks whether Taken: Natalee Holloway: Season 1 will be the Top Global Netflix Show on Nov 16, 2026 [1]. The event's resolution rule is narrower in one respect: it resolves Yes if the named title is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published on Nov 17, 2026 [1]. The rule explains that the chart covers the week ending the previous Sunday and that Netflix updates its charts on Tuesday [1].
The wording therefore differs in a way that matters. The market titles refer to Nov 16, 2026, while the rule text refers to the chart published Nov 17, 2026 [1]. Readers should use the resolution rule as the controlling text and check it directly before relying on any single market.
Close times also need care. The rule says the market closes at 11:59 PM ET the day before the Tuesday chart update [1]. The saved market records list an end date of 2026-11-23T15:00:00.000Z [1], while the provider status line says the listed end time was not supplied [1]. The evidence does not resolve this discrepancy.
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-11-11T12:00:05.992Z and retrieved at 2026-11-11T12:07:55.353Z [1]. These are the times of this snapshot only. They do not show live prices at the time you read this.
Within the saved sample, Taken: Natalee Holloway: Season 1 has the highest Yes price at 0.755 (No 0.245) [1]. The other nine markets are priced between 0.015 and 0.025 for Yes [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because each market is a separate contract, their prices should be read individually. They should not be averaged or combined into a single field estimate.
The sample is complete for this provider event: all 10 markets were included, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. The evidence still does not establish that the provider lists every possible title that could rank first.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price moved, how many traders hold each view, or how much liquidity sits behind these quotes. Volume figures are not included in this summary and would not indicate liquidity or trader count if they were. The evidence also does not show the outcome of the Nov 17, 2026 chart, and it contains no reporting on the titles beyond the market listings.
References
- Kalshi: Top Global Netflix Show this week?. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T12:00:05.992Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 11, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract asks whether a specific Netflix title will be ranked first on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart for a given week. Each contract in this group is tied to one title. The Kalshi rules state that if the named show is number one on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published on the stated date, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules also say Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday, so the market closes at 11:59 PM ET on the day before that update, and the chart covers the week ending the previous Sunday [1]. The rules state that the market and its products are not endorsed by Netflix, and that references to Netflix are descriptive only [1]. The contract is therefore about a ranking outcome on a specific chart, not about a general measure of a show's popularity. A title's chart position depends on the chart methodology and publication schedule described in the rules, and the contract resolves on the single chart named in those rules rather than on any other ranking or viewing figure [1]. The saved market set lists ten contracts under this event, each asking whether one title will be top on the chart. Titles in the saved set include Taken: Natalee Holloway: Season 1, Black Doves: Season 2, Will Trent: Season 1, The Diplomat: Season 4, and Nobody Wants This: Season 3 [1]. The saved set includes all ten markets for this event, so no titles are omitted from this sample [1].
Historical Context
Netflix, Inc. was founded on August 29, 1997, by Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph in Scotts Valley, California, and is currently based in Los Gatos, California [3]. The company owns and operates an over-the-top subscription video on-demand service that offers acquired and original programming, along with third-party content licensed from other production companies and distributors [3]. The service is described as available internationally in multiple languages [2]. The source describes Netflix as the first streaming media company to be a member of the Motion Picture Association [3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a named Netflix title will hold the number one position on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart for the specified publication. Because the rules tie resolution to one published chart and one closing time, the outcome turns on that chart rather than on a general notion of which show is most watched [1]. The rules also describe the chart as covering the week ending the previous Sunday, which means the ranking reflects that earlier period [1]. The saved prices show how the market valued each title at the observation time. At that snapshot, Taken: Natalee Holloway: Season 1 had a Yes price of 0.575, the highest in the saved set, while the other titles had Yes prices of 0.025 or lower [1]. These figures are snapshots taken at the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved data does not include volume figures that would indicate liquidity or the number of participants.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-12 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for a contract in this group to resolve Yes?
The named title must be number one on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published on the date stated in the rules [1].
When does trading close for these contracts?
The rules say the Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday and the market closes at 11:59 PM ET the day before that update [1]. The saved market data lists an end date of November 23, 2026 at 15:00 UTC, and the rule text refers to the chart published on November 17, 2026 [1]. These dates should be read as they appear in the saved records rather than combined into a single schedule.
What does the chart cover?
The rules state that the chart published on the specified date covers the week ending the previous Sunday [1].
Is Netflix involved in these contracts?
The rules state that the market and its products have not been endorsed by Netflix, and that any references to Netflix are descriptive only and do not indicate affiliation between Netflix and Kalshi [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
