Top US Netflix Show this week?
K 18.0K contracts
1
13
Top US Netflix Show this week?
K 18.0K contracts
1
13
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Taken: Natalee Holloway: Season 1 at 95.5%.
Kalshi
- Taken: Natalee Holloway: Season 195.5%
- The Body: Season 13%
- Black Doves Season 21%
- Power Season 10.5%
- The Fall of El Mayo: Limited Series0.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 18.0K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
13
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
The chart published on Nov 17, 2026 If X 1 is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Nov 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday. Therefore, the market will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before. The chart published on Nov 17, 2026 will be for the week ending the previous Sunday. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Netflix. Any references to Netflix, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Netflix and Kalshi. The Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday. Therefore, the market will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-11T09:00:06.029Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks which title will be the top US Netflix show on a specific weekly chart. The rules state that if X is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show "on the chart published on Nov 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The same rules say that chart "will be for the week ending the previous Sunday" [1]. The individual market titles instead refer to "Nov 16, 2026" [1]. The rules text governs the contract, so readers should note this mismatch rather than assume the two dates are the same.
The rules also say the Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday and that the market "will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before" [1]. The saved market records list an end date of 2026-11-23T15:00:00.000Z [1]. The source excerpt, however, records the listed end time as "not supplied" [1]. Readers should confirm the closing time with the provider before relying on the stored timestamp.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-11-11T09:00:06Z and retrieved at 11:22 UTC the same day [1]. They describe that past observation, not live conditions.
In this sample, "Will Taken: Natalee Holloway: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Nov 16, 2026?" had a Yes price of 0.58 and a No price of 0.42 [1]. "Will Love Is Blind: S11: Boston" had a Yes price of 0.02 [1]. Eight other titles each had a Yes price of 0.005 [1].
These figures are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Each market is a separate contract, so the prices should not be averaged or combined. The coverage record shows all 10 saved markets for this event were included, with no partial sample [1]. That does not establish that the provider lists every possible title in the real-world field. Differences between contracts do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include volume, trader counts, or any explanation for why prices are where they are. It also contains no recent news about the titles or the Netflix chart. The date mismatch between the rules and the market titles, and the unsupplied listed end time, remain open questions for the provider to resolve. Because no resolution is recorded in the evidence, the outcome of the contract cannot be determined from this snapshot.
References
- Kalshi: Top US Netflix Show this week?. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T09:00:06.029Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 11, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event titled "Top US Netflix Show this week?" The contract asks which show ranks first on Netflix's Top 10 US chart. According to the event rules, if the show named in a given market is number one on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on November 17, 2026, that market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules state that the Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday, so the market closes at 11:59 PM ET the day before, and the chart published on November 17, 2026 covers the week ending the previous Sunday [1]. The saved market titles refer to "Nov 16, 2026," while the rule text refers to the chart published on November 17, 2026 [1]. The entry reports both as written and does not resolve the difference. The provider lists the event as active and does not supply a listed end time, although the saved market records include an end date field [1]. The event rules also state that the market and its products have not been endorsed by Netflix, and that references to Netflix are descriptive only and do not indicate an affiliation between Netflix and Kalshi [1]. Each market in the event asks whether one particular title will be the top US show on the chart, so the contract is about a single chart position rather than the overall popularity of a service [1].
Historical Context
The supplied background describes Netflix, Inc. as founded on August 29, 1997, by Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph in Scotts Valley, California, and currently based in Los Gatos, California [2]. The same source notes that Netflix is the first streaming media company to be a member of the Motion Picture Association [2]. The available sources do not explain the history of the Netflix Top 10 chart itself.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single ranking event: whether a named title holds the number one position on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart for the specified week [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to one published chart, the timing of the chart update and the market close determines which week counts [1]. The Netflix service is described as an over-the-top subscription service that distributes original and acquired films and television shows [3], which provides context for why its charts are followed, though the sources do not describe how the chart is compiled.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-11 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for a market in this event to resolve Yes?
The market resolves to Yes if the named show is number one on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on November 17, 2026 [1].
Is this market endorsed by Netflix?
No. The event rules state that the market and its products have not been endorsed by Netflix, and that references to Netflix are descriptive only [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
