Name: OH-09 Republican Primary Winner
End: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z

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OH-09 Republican Primary Winner | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.98K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.98K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Alea Nadeem be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Alea Nadeem be the Republican nominee for OH-09?	Poly	36%
Will Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09?	Poly	33%
Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?	Poly	28%
Will Wayne Kinsel be the Republican nominee for OH-09?	Poly	12%
Will Anthony Campbell be the Republican nominee for OH-09?	Poly	6%
Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09?	Poly	3%
Will Jacob Frost be the Republican nominee for OH-09?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$4.98K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any r

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** OH-09 Republican Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 5, 2026 (72 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any r

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.80)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Alea Nadeem be the Republican nominee for OH-09?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $453
  DATA: [Yes: 35.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jacob Frost be the Republican nominee for OH-09?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $343
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $362
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Anthony Campbell be the Republican nominee for OH-09?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $226
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Wayne Kinsel be the Republican nominee for OH-09?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $235
  DATA: [Yes: 11.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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