Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Ohio: Acton's margin vs. Brown's margin?

Total Volume

$8.40K

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Ohio: Acton's margin vs. Brown's margin?

Vol

$8.40K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $8.40K

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $8.40K

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8 markets tracked

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 0 and 2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 0 and 2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	39%
Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -2.99 and -0.005 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	38%
Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 3 and 5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	13%
Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -5.99 and -2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	11%
Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -8.99 and -5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	3%
Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 6 and 8.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	3%
Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -200 and -8.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	2%
Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be at least 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$8.40K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 If the difference between Amy Acton's margin in the Ohio governor election and Sherrod Brown's margin in the Ohio U.S. Senate special election is between X and Y as measured in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each candidate's margin is that candidate's percentage of total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. X margin is negative i

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Ohio: Acton's margin vs. Brown's margin?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 3, 2026

If the difference between Amy Acton's margin in the Ohio governor election and Sherrod Brown's margin in the Ohio U.S. Senate special election is between X and Y as measured in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each candidate's margin is that candidate's percentage of total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. X margin is negative i

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the difference between Amy Acton's margin in the Ohio governor election and Sherrod Brown's margin in the Ohio U.S. Senate special election is between -8.99 and -5.995 as measured in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -8.99 and -5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 7, 2027): Vol $334
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 6 and 8.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 7, 2027): Vol $663
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -5.99 and -2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 7, 2027): Vol $334
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 3 and 5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 7, 2027): Vol $731
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -2.99 and -0.005 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 7, 2027): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -200 and -8.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 7, 2027): Vol $354
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 0 and 2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 7, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be at least 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 7, 2027): Vol $908
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Ohio: Acton's margin vs. Brown's margin?

Volume$8.40K

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 0 and 2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.5¢No 61.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 0 and 2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the difference between Amy Acton's margin in the Ohio governor election and Sherrod Brown's margin in the Ohio U.S. Senate special election is between 0 and 2.995 as measured in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin is tha

KALSHI

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -2.99 and -0.005 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -2.99 and -0.005 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the difference between Amy Acton's margin in the Ohio governor election and Sherrod Brown's margin in the Ohio U.S. Senate special election is between -2.99 and -0.005 as measured in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin i

KALSHI

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 3 and 5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 3 and 5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the difference between Amy Acton's margin in the Ohio governor election and Sherrod Brown's margin in the Ohio U.S. Senate special election is between 3 and 5.995 as measured in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin is tha

KALSHI

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -5.99 and -2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -5.99 and -2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the difference between Amy Acton's margin in the Ohio governor election and Sherrod Brown's margin in the Ohio U.S. Senate special election is between -5.99 and -2.995 as measured in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin i

KALSHI

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -8.99 and -5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -8.99 and -5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the difference between Amy Acton's margin in the Ohio governor election and Sherrod Brown's margin in the Ohio U.S. Senate special election is between -8.99 and -5.995 as measured in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin i

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Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 0 and 2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Events (1)

Ohio: Acton's margin vs. Brown's margin?

Markets (8)

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 0 and 2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 0 and 2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -2.99 and -0.005 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -2.99 and -0.005 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 3 and 5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 3 and 5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -5.99 and -2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -5.99 and -2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -8.99 and -5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -8.99 and -5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 0 and 2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Ohio: Acton's margin vs. Brown's margin?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 0 and 2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 0 and 2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -2.99 and -0.005 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -2.99 and -0.005 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 3 and 5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 3 and 5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -5.99 and -2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -5.99 and -2.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -8.99 and -5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the difference between Amy Acton's governor margin and Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between -8.99 and -5.995 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

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