How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?
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How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?
$0.00
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4
AI Analysis
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About This Event
Before 2026 If New York City has less than X billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Traders on Kalshi are currently pricing a 34% chance that New York City loses at least 3 billionaires before 2026. That's roughly a 1 in 3 chance, which the market considers unlikely but far from impossible. For context, a coin flip would be 50%, so this is meaningfully below even odds, but it's not a remote possibility either.
The market is essentially saying: don't bet on a mass billionaire exodus, but don't be shocked if a few decide to pack up.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
New York has been the billionaire capital of the world for years, with roughly 100 to 110 billionaires calling the city home depending on the year and who's counting. The number fluctuates naturally, not just from people moving, but from fortunes rising and falling with stock markets, real estate values, and business performance.
Three main factors shape these odds:
The baseline churn. Even in stable years, a couple of billionaires typically leave New York for Florida, Texas, or abroad. That's normal turnover. But three departures in a single year is a slightly higher bar than usual.
Tax policy pressures. New York's top marginal income tax rate, combined with city taxes, can exceed 14% for the wealthiest residents. Several high-profile financiers and tech founders have moved to no-income-tax states in recent years. Carl Icahn, for example, relocated to Florida in 2020, and hedge fund manager Ken Griffin chose Miami over Manhattan. Those moves made headlines, but they also thinned the herd already.
The counterweight: New York still attracts wealth. For every billionaire who leaves, others arrive. The city remains the center of American finance, media, and culture. New billionaires are created here each year through IPOs, private equity deals, and real estate development. That inflow offsets some of the outflow.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The market resolves before 2026, so there's a full calendar year of potential movement. Watch for:
- Year-end tax planning announcements: Billionaires often make relocation decisions around tax deadlines, typically late in the year.
- Major IPO or acquisition waves: A strong market could mint new billionaires, offsetting any departures.
- State or city tax changes: Any legislative moves affecting high earners could accelerate exits.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Prediction markets have a decent track record on binary events like this, though billionaire counts are tricky. The numbers depend on who's counting (Forbes vs. Bloomberg vs. the city itself) and how you define "resident." A billionaire might keep a New York apartment but spend most of the year elsewhere, making the count fuzzy.
Markets tend to be more accurate on events with clear, verifiable outcomes. This one has some ambiguity baked in, which means the 34% figure carries more uncertainty than the number alone suggests. Still, the market is reflecting a sensible read: a few departures are likely, but a major exodus isn't in the cards.
Current Market Outlook
Kalshi traders currently price a 34% chance that New York City loses at least 3 billionaires before 2026. That means the market sees this as unlikely but hardly impossible. A 34% probability is the kind of number that suggests real momentum behind the trend, but not enough to call it the base case. The market is effectively saying there's roughly a 1 in 3 chance that three or more of the city's wealthiest residents either die, relocate, or otherwise drop off the Forbes roster within the next year.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The primary driver here is the well-documented post-pandemic exodus of high-net-worth individuals from high-tax states. New York's top marginal income tax rate of 10.9% combined with the city's 3.9% rate creates a combined burden over 14%, the highest in the nation. Florida and Texas, with zero state income tax, remain the most common destinations.
A 2023 study by the Internal Revenue Service's migration data showed New York lost roughly $11 billion in adjusted gross income to out-migration in a single year. That trend has accelerated among the ultra-wealthy specifically. Ken Griffin moved Citadel to Miami in 2022. Carl Icahn and John Paulson have both publicly discussed leaving. The very structure of New York's billionaire class, heavy on finance and real estate, makes them mobile compared to industrial wealth anchored by physical assets.
The counterweight is that billionaire departures are often overstated. Many who "leave" maintain primary residences, keep business headquarters in the city, and continue to be counted as New York billionaires by Forbes. The 2024 Forbes list still counted 107 billionaires in New York, down from 110 the prior year.
What Could Change These Odds
The biggest catalyst is the expiration of the Trump tax cuts' state and local tax deduction cap in 2025. If the $10,000 SALT cap lapses without replacement, the effective cost of living in New York drops meaningfully for the wealthy, which could slow out-migration and push this probability lower.
Conversely, a market downturn concentrated in tech or finance could trigger a wave of retirement relocations. Billionaires often time their departures around major liquidity events, and 2025 has several large IPO windows on the calendar. If two or three marquee names announce moves in the first half of the year, this contract could spike well past 50%.
The early close condition matters here. If three billionaires leave early in 2025, the market resolves immediately rather than waiting for the year-end count. That creates a binary scenario where this market either stays quiet all year or resolves suddenly. Traders should watch for any single high-profile relocation announcement, because that alone could shift the odds by 20 points overnight.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Overview
New York City has long been a magnet for the world's wealthiest individuals, hosting more billionaires than any other city in the United States and often ranking first globally. The question of how many billionaires the city will lose by 2026 reflects broader concerns about urban economic vitality, tax policy, and quality of life. This prediction market asks participants to forecast the net change in the number of billionaires residing in New York City before the start of 2026, with the market resolving 'yes' if the count falls below a specified threshold. The exact threshold is not provided, but the market's phrasing suggests a focus on potential outflows of ultra-wealthy residents amid rising crime, high taxes, and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Interest in this topic spiked after several high-profile billionaires, including hedge fund managers and tech entrepreneurs, publicly announced relocations to lower-tax states like Florida and Texas. The market also taps into ongoing debates about income inequality, municipal budgets, and the competitive dynamics between global financial centers. While New York's billionaire population has historically been resilient, recent data from Forbes and other sources indicate a slight decline, making this a timely and data-driven question for economists, policymakers, and investors alike.
Historical Context
New York City's billionaire population has fluctuated over the decades, but it has generally trended upward since the 1980s, when the modern billionaire boom began. In 2019, Forbes counted 84 billionaires in New York, the highest number in the world at the time. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 triggered a temporary exodus, with many wealthy residents fleeing to suburban or low-tax states, but by 2021 the count rebounded to 85, according to Forbes. However, the pandemic also accelerated remote work, making it easier for billionaires to live elsewhere. In 2022, the count dropped slightly to 82, and in 2023 it fell to 80, reflecting a slow but steady decline. Historical precedents include the 1970s, when New York faced a fiscal crisis and many wealthy families left, but the city rebounded in the 1980s and 1990s. More recently, the 2017 federal tax law capped state and local tax deductions (SALT), which disproportionately affected high-income New Yorkers, prompting some to consider relocation. The trend of billionaires moving to Florida and Texas has been particularly notable, with states like Florida gaining 4 billionaires in 2023 while New York lost 2. This historical context suggests that while New York's billionaire population is not collapsing, it is facing sustained pressure from tax and quality-of-life factors.
Why It Matters
The number of billionaires in New York City is not just a curiosity; it has significant economic and fiscal implications. Billionaires contribute disproportionately to city and state tax revenues through income taxes, property taxes, and sales taxes. A loss of even a few billionaires can mean tens of millions of dollars in lost annual tax revenue, which affects funding for public services like schools, transit, and public safety. For example, New York City's budget relies heavily on personal income tax, and the top 1% of earners pay about 40% of the city's income tax. If billionaires leave, the tax burden may shift to middle-income residents, potentially worsening inequality. Politically, billionaire outflows are used by critics to argue that New York is anti-business, which can discourage other high-net-worth individuals and companies from investing in the city. This could lead to a downward spiral of reduced economic activity, lower property values, and diminished global competitiveness. Socially, the presence of billionaires supports luxury real estate, high-end retail, and cultural institutions, and their departure could have ripple effects on jobs and local businesses. The prediction market reflects these stakes, as investors and policymakers watch for signs of change.
Current Status
As of late 2024, New York City's billionaire count stands at around 80, according to Forbes' 2023 list, with early estimates for 2024 suggesting a stable or slightly declining number. Several high-profile billionaires have announced moves to Florida in recent years, including Ken Griffin, who relocated Citadel's headquarters to Miami in 2022, though he maintains a residence in New York. The city has also seen an influx of new billionaires, such as those from tech and crypto, but the net change remains unclear. Mayor Eric Adams has made retention of wealthy residents a priority, citing public safety improvements, but crime rates remain a concern. The state's budget for 2024 included no new taxes on the wealthy, but the existing surcharge remains. The prediction market's early closure condition suggests that if the number of billionaires falls below a certain threshold before 2026, the market will resolve early, indicating a rapid decline could happen soon. Recent reports from property brokers and wealth management firms indicate continued interest from billionaires in NYC real estate, but tax policies and remote work flexibility pose ongoing risks.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many billionaires live in New York City?
As of 2023, Forbes counted 80 billionaires in New York City, making it the city with the most billionaires in the world, ahead of Hong Kong and San Francisco. The number has declined slightly from 85 in 2021.
Why are billionaires leaving New York?
Billionaires are leaving New York primarily due to high taxes, including the state's top marginal income tax rate of 10.9%, and the federal SALT deduction cap of $10,000. Other factors include rising crime, high cost of living, and the flexibility of remote work.
Which billionaires have recently moved out of New York?
Notable billionaires who have moved out include Carl Icahn (to Florida in 2020), Thomas Peterffy (to Florida in 2023), and Ken Griffin (moved his company's headquarters to Miami in 2022, though he still has a New York residence). Others like Stephen Schwarzman have stayed but have expressed concerns.
How does New York's billionaire population compare to other cities?
New York leads globally with about 80 billionaires, followed by Hong Kong with around 70 and San Francisco with about 60. In the U.S., Florida has been gaining billionaires, with Miami now having about 20, but New York still maintains a significant lead.
What is the impact of billionaires leaving on New York's economy?
The departure of billionaires can reduce tax revenue, as the top 1% pay about 40% of the city's income tax. It can also affect real estate markets, philanthropy, and the perception of the city as a business hub. However, the impact is often gradual, and new billionaires can replace those who leave.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
