Next Gemini Pro model release
PM $2.00M · K 67.4K contracts
3
8
Next Gemini Pro model release
PM $2.00M · K 67.4K contracts
3
8
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, November 30 is priced at 8.5% on Polymarket and 7% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 30Same question, fine print differs | 8.5% | 7% | 1.5 pts |
| October 31Same question, fine print differs | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.3 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $2.00M · K 67.4K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
2
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
next Gemini Pro model If Google releases next Gemini Pro model before Nov X 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Kalshi event asks whether Google will release its next Gemini Pro model before a set date. The event excerpt says the market resolves to Yes "If Google releases next Gemini Pro model before Nov X 2026" [1]. The excerpt leaves "Nov X" unfilled, so it does not establish a single deadline for the event. The individual markets use different dates in their titles: before November 1, November 16, and December 1, 2026 [1].
The rules also set a release standard. The release "must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable" [1]. A limited beta therefore would not meet the rule, while a paid subscription tier would. The market also "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these markets at 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z, and the application retrieved the source at 2026-10-27T01:20:08.819Z [1]. These are past snapshots, not live quotes, and they may not reflect current trading.
Each market lists a Yes and No price. The Yes prices are 0.005 for the November 1 market, 0.045 for the November 16 market, and 0.07 for the December 1 market [1]. The listed close times are 2026-11-08, 2026-11-23, and 2026-12-08, each at 15:00 UTC [1]. These close times differ from the title dates, so the title and the listed end date should be checked together before comparing contracts. The excerpt does not supply an event end time.
These prices are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The three markets have different deadlines, so their prices should not be averaged or treated as one outcome. Volume was not supplied, and volume alone does not indicate liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes all three saved markets for this single Kalshi event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1]. The sample warning still applies: the providers may not list every possible outcome [1]. The evidence does not show what other release timings were possible.
The evidence also does not explain the prices, identify any Gemini model announcement, or show whether Google has set a release plan. Because the excerpt leaves the "Nov X" deadline unresolved, readers should not assume that any one listed close time is the event's definitive resolution date.
References
- Kalshi: Next Gemini Pro model release. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract belongs to a Kalshi event asking whether Google will release its next Gemini Pro model before a set cutoff date. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to Yes if Google releases the next Gemini Pro model before the cutoff [1]. The release must be to the public and outside of a closed beta, although limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable [1]. The event is set to close and expire early if the release occurs [1]. The saved event lists three date-specific markets, each asking about a different cutoff, so the same rule applies to each one with a different deadline. The provider lists the event as active, but the saved records do not supply a listed end time for the event itself [1]. The underlying subject is Gemini, a family of models. Gemini is described as a family of multimodal large language models developed by Google DeepMind, and it comprises Gemini Pro, Gemini Deep Think, Gemini Flash, and Gemini Flash Lite [2]. It powers the Gemini chatbot [2]. Gemini is also described as a generative artificial intelligence chatbot and virtual assistant developed by Google [3]. The contract does not depend on Gemini's existing lineup. It turns on whether a new Gemini Pro model reaches the public within the stated window. Readers should separate three dates: the observation time of the saved provider snapshot, the time the sources were retrieved, and the contract cutoff written in each market title and rule. The cutoff dates are contract terms, not announced release dates. The saved sources do not identify any scheduled Gemini Pro launch.
Historical Context
According to the Wikipedia article on Gemini, the model family was announced on December 6, 2023, and it is the successor to LaMDA and PaLM 2 [2]. The family was named after the Latin word for twins and NASA's Project Gemini [2]. The chatbot was originally known as Bard before being marketed as Google Gemini [3]. The saved sources do not describe the release history of individual Gemini Pro versions, so they cannot establish which version is the most recent.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow event: whether a new Gemini Pro model is publicly released before a stated cutoff. The rule separates a public release from a closed beta [1]. Because the rule says a limit to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable, a model that is available only to paying subscribers at that tier could still count as a public release under the stated terms [1]. Each date-specific market applies this same release rule to a different cutoff, so a market with an earlier cutoff asks a narrower question than one with a later cutoff [1]. The saved price snapshots reflect the provider's observed trading at the observation time, and they are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a release under this contract?
The rule requires the release to be to the public and outside of a closed beta, but limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable [1].
What happens if the release occurs before the cutoff?
The market resolves to Yes, and it will close and expire early [1].
Is the cutoff date in each market an announced release date?
No. The cutoff is the date written in the contract rule, and the saved sources do not identify any announced Gemini Pro release date [1].
Which model family does Gemini Pro belong to?
Gemini Pro is one of the models in the Gemini family, which also includes Gemini Deep Think, Gemini Flash, and Gemini Flash Lite [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
2
Largest saved gap: 1.5 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
