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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Fed median dot plot in June 2026

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Fed median dot plot in June 2026

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8 markets tracked

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.1%)

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.1%)	Kalshi	100%
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.0%)	Kalshi	98%
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)	Kalshi	96%
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.2%)	Kalshi	96%
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)	Kalshi	78%
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)	Kalshi	68%
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)	Kalshi	4%
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)	Kalshi	3%

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About This Event

At June 2026 meeting If the median dot plot for 2026 is above X at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed median dot plot in June 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** At June 2026 meeting

If the median dot plot for 2026 is above X at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.7% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 24, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 24, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 24, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 67.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 24, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 24, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.2%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 24, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.1%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 24, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 24, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Fed median dot plot in June 2026

At June 2026 meeting If the median dot plot for 2026 is above X at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

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KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.1%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.1%)

If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.1% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.0%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.0%)

If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.0% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)

If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.3% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.2%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.2%)

If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.2% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.4% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

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68¢

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Fed median dot plot in June 2026

Fed median dot plot in June 2026

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What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.1%)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Fed median dot plot in June 2026

Markets (8)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.1%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.1%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.0%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.0%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.2%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.2%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.1%)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fed median dot plot in June 2026

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.1%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.1%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.0%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.0%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.2%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.2%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

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