Winnipeg Mayoral Election
PM $37.6K
1
11
Winnipeg Mayoral Election
PM $37.6K
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Scott Gillingham at 92%.
Polymarket
- Scott Gillingham92%
- Kevin Klein4.5%
- Noah Redden4.4%
- Michael Vogiatzakis2.6%
- Mazher Alam2.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $37.6K
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Winnipeg as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Winnipeg.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T03:00:06.023Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event "Winnipeg Mayoral Election" has 11 binary markets, each asking whether a named candidate will win. The event text says the election "is currently scheduled to be held on October 28, 2026" [1]. Each market resolves according to "the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Winnipeg as a result of this election," and "Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered" [1].
The rules also set a fallback. If the result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The primary resolution source is "a consensus of credible reporting," with official information from Winnipeg used if results are ambiguous [1]. The listed end time for every market is 2026-10-29T03:59:00.000Z [1]. That field is a provider close time and is separate from the election date in the rules.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-25T03:00:06.023Z and retrieved at 2026-10-25T03:59:42.307Z [1]. They describe that moment only, and they are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The Yes prices in the snapshot are Scott Gillingham at 0.92, Kevin Klein at 0.0545, Mazher Alam at 0.033, Don Woodstock at 0.0145, Noah Redden at 0.012, Michael Vogiatzakis, Christopher Clacio, Joshua Pagdato, Umar Hayat, and Zachary Uminski at 0.0015 each, and Johnny Calderon at 0.0005 [1].
These Yes prices do not sum to 1. Adding them gives about 1.04. Each market is a separate contract, so the gap is not treated here as an arbitrage opportunity or as evidence about any candidate's chances.
The sample covers all 11 saved markets for this event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The selection rule would have capped the sample at 12 markets, so no market was dropped. Even so, the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it contains no news, trader counts, or information about past forecasting accuracy. It also does not report results, so it cannot say who will be mayor. The listed close time falls after the scheduled election date, but the evidence does not say why. Readers should check the current provider page and the official rules before relying on any price or date.
References
- Polymarket: Winnipeg Mayoral Election. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T03:00:06.023Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
The Winnipeg Mayoral Election contract on Polymarket asks which candidate will become the next mayor of Winnipeg in the 2026 municipal election. The provider's event page states that the election is currently scheduled for October 28, 2026 [1]. Wikipedia's entry for the 2026 Winnipeg municipal election says the same date and adds that the offices of mayor, city councillors, and school trustees will be elected [2]. The mayoral race uses first-past-the-post voting, with the mayor elected across the whole city [2]. The contract is therefore about a single winner of a single office, not a share of the vote or the outcome of council seats. The saved Polymarket event includes eleven candidate contracts, each asking whether one named person will win [1]. The event page does not establish that every possible candidate is included, so the list should be read as the candidates the provider saved, not a complete statement of who is running. The contract's timing matters. The listed end time is October 29, 2026 at 03:59 UTC [1]. That is when the provider's listing closes, which is separate from when the election result is known or when the contract resolves.
Historical Context
The previous Winnipeg municipal election took place on October 26, 2022. It elected the offices of mayor, city councillors, and school trustees, and it was held as part of municipal elections across the province. It also used first-past-the-post voting, either for a municipality-wide mayoral district or for single-member council wards [3]. The 2026 election follows the same structure as described in the sources [2][3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures which candidate becomes the next mayor of Winnipeg as a result of the election scheduled for October 28, 2026 [1][2]. Under the provider's rules, temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election are not considered [1]. A result that is still unknown by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET resolves the market to "Other" [1]. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, and if the results are ambiguous, the market resolves according to official information from Winnipeg [1]. The rules also make clear that a contract's price is not the same as a confirmed result. Before the election, each contract reflects only the provider's saved trading snapshot for that candidate. Resolution depends on the stated rules and the eventual election outcome [1][2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Winnipeg mayoral election scheduled?
The provider's event page states that the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election is currently scheduled for October 28, 2026 [1]. The Wikipedia entry gives the same date [2].
Who does the contract say will decide the market?
The market resolves according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Winnipeg as a result of the election. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, with official information from Winnipeg used if the results are ambiguous [1].
Do appointed interim mayors count?
No. The provider's rules state that temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
If the election result is not known by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
What voting system is used for the mayor?
The mayor is elected in a municipality-wide district using first-past-the-post voting [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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