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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Number of TSA passengers April 27 - May 3?

Name: Number of TSA passengers April 27 - May 3?
End: 2026-05-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$421.55

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Number of TSA passengers April 27 - May 3?

Vol

$421.55

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $421.55

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $421.55

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be between 16,500,000 and 17,000,000?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be between 16,500,000 and 17,000,000?	Poly	56%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?	Poly	46%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be between 17,500,000 and 18,000,000?	Poly	10%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be less than 16,500,000?	Poly	2%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be between 18,000,000 and 18,500,000?	Poly	0%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be greater than 18,500,000?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

56%

Top Probability

$421.55

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between April 27, 2026 and May 3, 2026 (inclusive). The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million)

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Number of TSA passengers April 27 - May 3?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between April 27, 2026 and May 3, 2026 (inclusive). 

The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million)

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between April 27, 2026 and May 3, 2026 (inclusive). 

The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA chec"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $422
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be between 16,500,000 and 17,000,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $6
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be between 17,500,000 and 18,000,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $6
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be greater than 18,500,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $157
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be less than 16,500,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $107
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $6
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be between 18,000,000 and 18,500,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $141
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics