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GroupPOLYMARKET
7-day average ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on December 31?
7-day average ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on December 31?
Vol

PM $138.99

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Events

1

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Markets

6

Polymarket

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 3+ at 74%.

Polymarket

  1. 3+74%
  2. 2+64%
  3. 5+51%
  4. 6+51%
  5. 7+51%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $138.99

Reported volume · provider units

6

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Related prediction markets

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiPolitics
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

PM $19.96M · K 9.43M contracts

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 5.5%Rules differK Yes 2.8%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 1.3%Rules differK Yes 1.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

2 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
7-day average ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on December 31?

7-day average ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on December 31?

PM $40
Will the 7-day average ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be 24+ on December 31?Yes 52%
Will the 7-day average ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be 22+ on December 31?Yes 51.5%
Will the 7-day average ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be 26+ on December 31?Yes 50%
+3 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Peak daily ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz week of November 16?

Peak daily ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz week of November 16?

PM $0
Will 5+ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day week of November 16?Yes 83%
Will 6+ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day week of November 16?Yes 64%
Will 4+ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day week of November 16?Yes 50.5%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 23, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15)

K 122.0K contracts
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 3 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?Yes 95.5%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?Yes 71.5%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026?Yes 45.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Feb 15, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/16 - 11/22)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/16 - 11/22)

K 432.36 contracts
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 3 from Nov 16, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026?Yes 93%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Nov 16, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026?Yes 83%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Nov 16, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026?Yes 67.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Feb 22, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (November 2026)

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (November 2026)

K 10.2K contracts
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 7 in Nov 2026?Yes 86.5%
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Nov 2026?Yes 72%
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 9 in Nov 2026?Yes 39.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Mar 8, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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