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Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US Dollar Index move on July FOMC day?

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US Dollar Index move on July FOMC day?

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Kalshi

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markets · $0.00

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0.0%avg

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10 markets tracked

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.20%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.20%?	Kalshi	90%
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.40%?	Kalshi	76%
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.60%?	Kalshi	59%
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.80%?	Kalshi	53%
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.00%?	Kalshi	40%
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.20%?	Kalshi	26%
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.40%?	Kalshi	18%
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.60%?	Kalshi	12%
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.80%?	Kalshi	8%
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 2.00%?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

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90%

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About This Event

July 29, 2026 If the the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. The absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official daily settlement price on July 29, 2026 and the official daily settlement price for the previous trading day. “U.S. Dollar Index futures” refers to the ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract, trading screen product n

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US Dollar Index move on July FOMC day?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** July 29, 2026

If the the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. The absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official daily settlement price on July 29, 2026 and the official daily settlement price for the previous trading day. “U.S. Dollar Index futures” refers to the ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract, trading screen product n

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 is at least 2.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official daily set"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 2.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.80%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.60%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.40%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.80%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.60%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.40%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US Dollar Index move on July FOMC day?

Volume$0.00

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KALSHI

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.20%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.0¢No 10.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.20%?

If the the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 is at least 0.20%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official daily set

KALSHI

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.40%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.0¢No 24.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.40%?

If the the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 is at least 0.40%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official daily set

KALSHI

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.60%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.0¢No 41.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.60%?

If the the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 is at least 0.60%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official daily set

KALSHI

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.80%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 53.0¢No 47.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.80%?

If the the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 is at least 0.80%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official daily set

KALSHI

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.00%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.00%?

If the the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 is at least 1.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official daily set

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39¢

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US Dollar Index move on July FOMC day?

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Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.20%?

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Events (1)

US Dollar Index move on July FOMC day?

Markets (10)

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.20%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.20%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.40%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.40%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.60%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.60%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.80%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.80%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.00%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.00%?

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Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.20%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US Dollar Index move on July FOMC day?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.20%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.20%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.40%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.40%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.60%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.60%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.80%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.80%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.00%?

Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.00%?

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