GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?

Name: Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?
End: 2027-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.47K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?

Vol

$8.47K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.47K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.47K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	42%
Will Rand Paul be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	20%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	15%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	13%
Will Ron DeSantis be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	13%
Will Donald Trump be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	11%
Will J.D. Vance be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	11%
Will Marco Rubio be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	6%
Will Donald Trump Jr. be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	6%
Will Glenn Youngkin be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

42%

Top Probability

$8.47K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngki

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2027 (483 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. 

The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngki

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a ru"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $36.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.24)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will J.D. Vance be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $404
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Marco Rubio be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $419
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Ron DeSantis be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $230
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Donald Trump be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $913
  DATA: [Yes: 11.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Donald Trump Jr. be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $166
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Glenn Youngkin be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $197
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $313
  DATA: [Yes: 14.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Rand Paul be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $998
  DATA: [Yes: 20.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $140
  DATA: [Yes: 13.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics