GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

Name: Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
End: 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.40K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

Vol

$9.40K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.40K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.40K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Andy Beshear be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Andy Beshear be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	28%
Will Gavin Newsom be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	19%
Will Kamala Harris be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	13%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	13%
Will Rahm Emanuel be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	10%
Will Ro Khanna be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	10%
Will Stephen A. Smith be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	7%
Will Josh Shapiro be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	4%
Will Jon Ossoff be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	1%
Will Jon Stewart be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

28%

Top Probability

$9.40K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pet

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2029 (849 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. 

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pet

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a ru"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $95.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.10)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Gavin Newsom be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $391
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Jon Ossoff be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $306
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Kamala Harris be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $550
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Josh Shapiro be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $306
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Pete Buttigieg be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $622
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jon Stewart be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $369
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Andy Beshear be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Rahm Emanuel be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $687
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Ro Khanna be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $556
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Stephen A. Smith be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $363
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics